The Boston Red Sox take on the Oakland Athletics. Check out our MLB odds series for our Red Sox Athletics prediction and pick.
Rich Hill gets the ball for the Red Sox, while Frankie Montas gets the start for the Athletics.
Rich Hill is still carving out a big-league career at the age of 42. He is not on top of his game, but he is a respectable pitcher who has his moments. In three of his starts this season, Hill has had a scoreless — albeit limited — outing. In a fourth appearance, he posted a quality start: six innings pitched and three runs allowed in a win over the Rangers on May 14. Hill has spent many years doing what Nestor Cortes of the Yankees is doing this year: Varying his arm angles and release points, attacking the strike zone early in the count to get ahead of hitters and relying on deception to throw them off balance if they take strike one and get behind in the count. Hill was an important part of the Los Angeles Dodgers' pitching staff when L.A. made the World Series in 2017 and 2018. With a 4.85 ERA, he isn't being asked to dominate. Boston would be happy with a five-inning, two-run pitching line from Hill. If he delivers that, he will move the needle toward his team in a Red Sox Athletics prediction.
Frankie Montas has a 3.20 ERA, but he has been distinctly better in the past month of the season. In April, Montas pitched 29 2/3 innings and gave up 15 runs. In May, he pitched 35 innings and allowed only nine runs. Montas has made 11 starts this year. He has given up two runs or fewer in eight of them. He has conceded four or more runs in his other three starts. Just over 70 percent of the time, the good version of Montas shows up. He will be a coveted pitcher before the summer trade deadline, so he has every incentive to pitch well even though the A's are well out of playoff contention and are playing their home games before very sparse crowds in Oakland. Incorporate that reality into your Red Sox Athletics pick based on the current MLB odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Red Sox-Athletics MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Athletics Odds
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+180)
Oakland Athletics: +1.5 (-220)
Over: 7.5 (+102)
Under: 7.5 (-124)
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Why The Red Sox Could Cover the Spread
The Red Sox have come into Oakland and dominated the A's in two straight games. They are playing better baseball. They hit the ball better than Oakland does. They have better, more experienced players who, while prone to slumps, have a much higher ceiling than the fire-sale A's, who are a stripped-down team after the offseason deals which unloaded Matt Olson (Braves) and Matt Chapman (Blue Jays) to other teams. Rich Hill isn't a dominant pitcher, but he should be able to contain Oakland's hitters. The Red Sox should produce enough offense to eclipse the A's.
Why The Athletics Could Cover the Spread
After losing the first two games of this series, Oakland is due for a bounce-back game. The bigger reason to take the A's, however, is that the pitching matchup clearly and decisively favors Oakland. Rich Hill is likely to give up three runs, while Frankie Montas is not. The A's are much more likely than the Red Sox to have a two- or three-run lead through six innings.
Final Red Sox-Athletics Prediction & Pick
If you distrust the A's but you also see the pitching matchup here, which heavily favors Oakland, split the difference and take the A's plus a run and a half.
Final Red Sox-Athletics Prediction & Pick: Athletics +1.5
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