The Boston Red Sox take on the Toronto Blue Jays. Check out our MLB odds series for our Red Sox Blue Jays prediction and pick.
Nick Pivetta makes the start for the Red Sox, while Alek Manoah takes the ball for the Blue Jays.
Nick Pivetta has a 3.25 ERA, but he should be viewed as a better pitcher than that number might suggest. Pivetta, like the Red Sox, had an atrocious month of April. Boston struggled that month, and Pivetta did as well. Pivetta posted an 8.27 ERA for that first ugly month of the year, but since then, he has pitched like a Cy Young candidate. His May ERA was 2.11 and his June ERA is 2.12. In his last 11 starts, he has allowed more than three runs only once, more than two runs only three times. He has kept the ball in the park, allowing just five home runs in 72 innings. His resurgence has accompanied the Red Sox' big upward push in the American League East standings.
Alek Manoah has a 2.05 ERA. He is a frontline American League Cy Young Award contender. He is the ace of a Toronto staff which includes Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios. He has been terrifically consistent, allowing more than two earned runs in only two of his 14 starts. Manoah, who is a big, strong figure on the mound, can easily rush his fastball to the plate. His muscular frame gives him a lot of leverage as a hard thrower. However, the real difference for him this year has been a clear evolution in the throwing of his cutter and slider. He gets a lot of late-breaking movement and diving action on his pitches, far more than what he showed last year. His ability to manipulate the ball is what all pitchers try to do: They start the ball in the strike zone, and by the time the hitter has committed to swing, the ball has begun to dip or slide out of the strike zone. Manoah gets hitters to chase a lot, and he gets hitters to swing and miss a lot, two essential ingredients of elite pitching in this or any other era.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Red Sox-Blue Jays MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Blue Jays Odds
Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-150)
Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+125)
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
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Why The Red Sox Could Cover the Spread
Nick Pivetta has been a 2.12 ERA pitcher over the past two months. That is hard to bet against. A motivated and talented team which has lost two straight games in Toronto will not allow itself to get swept out of Canada. This is a great bounce-back spot for the Sox.
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover the Spread
Alek Manoah could very reasonably be viewed as the Cy Young co-favorite alongside Justin Verlander of the Houston Astros. The two are very likely going to be part of the top three Cy Young vote-getters in the American League. Manoah very rarely stumbles on the mound, and it takes a lot of patience and determination to score just two or three runs against him. You don't want to bet against Manoah.
Final Red Sox-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick
Picking the winner of the game is very difficult here. The Jays usually win Manoah's starts, but the Red Sox are a good team trying to avoid a three-game sweep. That's a stay-away play. The place to bet on this game is the total, where Pivetta and Manoah have both been pitching at an elite level — Pivetta for the past two months, Manoah for the whole season. The total should be seven runs. Instead it's 8.5. Go ahead and take the under.
Final Red Sox-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick: Under 8.5
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