The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles will begin their weekend series with a Friday night matchup in Baltimore. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Red Sox-Orioles prediction and pick, laid out below.
Boston has suffered through a terrible season, with a 67-71 record placing them in last place in the AL East. The team has lost some key players to injury, and a confusing trade deadline further muddied their immediate future. Still, the club is committed to both manager Alex Cora and General Manager Chaim Bloom for next season.
Baltimore's shine has yet to run out, as the team is 72-65, fourth place in the AL East, but just four and a half games out of the final AL Wild Card spot. For a team that entered the season with little to no real expectations, this is a complete 180-degree turn from their recent struggles.
Here are the Red Sox-Orioles MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Orioles Odds
Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-192)
Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+158)
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Boston will send promising rookie Brayan Bello to the mound tonight. Bello has made eight appearances and six starts this season, going 1-4 with a 5.91 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 32 innings. The hard-throwing 23-year-old has run into some bad luck, as his expected era is 4.09, suggesting some bad luck. Bello's changeup has held batters to a .172 batting average, with nine strikeouts coming off the cambio.
Boston's bullpen has been brutal this season, with some players underperforming and some players missing significant time with injury. Garrett Whitlock has been thrust into the closer role, making 19 relief appearances, with a 2.72 ERA and six saves in those appearances. Whitlock has only walked 4.7% of the batters he has faced, ranking in the 92nd percentile in the league. Batters have hit just .114 against his changeup. John Schreiber has come out of nowhere, with a 2.08 ERA and seven saves in 55 appearances. Schreiber has struck out 65 in his 56.1 innings, holding batters to a minuscule .181 expected batting average.
Boston's offense is led by star third baseman Rafael Devers, who is one of the more exciting players in the league. Devers leads the team with 37 doubles, 25 home runs, and 73 RBI. Devers has cut down on his strikeout rate, and significantly improved his defense, proving himself even more valuable than he has been. JD Martinez has also hit 37 doubles, adding 11 home runs and a .341 on-base percentage. Trevor Story has missed some time with injury, but has 16 home runs and 13 stolen bases in his 91 games played. Xander Bogaerts leads the team with an impressive .315 batting average, adding 37 doubles, 12 home runs and eight stolen bases. Boston leads the league with 312 doubles.
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
Baltimore has been the darlings of the league all season. Tonight, they will send Austin Voth to the mound, yet another feather in the cap of their player development department. Voth was claimed off waivers after 19 disastrous appearances for Washington. All Voth has done in his 17 games with Baltimore is pitch to a 2.71 ERA in 63 innings. Voth's walk rate is down to a career-low seven percent, and he has altered his pitch mix significantly from a rough 2021 season.
Baltimore's bullpen has been a big reason for their unexpected success, as the group ranks sixth in ERA. New closer Felix Bautista has pitched to a 1.60 ERA with 12 saves and 80 strikeouts in 61 innings. Bautista has struck out 35.1% of the batters he has faced, ranking in the 97th percentile, and batters have hit just .061 against his trapdoor splitter. Cionel Perez, picked up off waivers in the offseason, has pitched to a 1.49 ERA in 56 appearances. Dillon Tate, the team's Roberto Clemente Award nominee, owns a 2.71 ERA in 63 innings.
Baltimore's offense lost Trey Mancini at the trade deadline, but this group still has been solid. Anthony Santander leads the team with 27 home runs and 79 RBI, adding 22 doubles. Ryan Mountcastle has belted 21 home runs and 26 doubles. Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins lead the team with 30 doubles, with Hays hitting 15 home runs. Mullins has added 13 home runs and is tied with Jorge Mateo for the team lead with 30 stolen bases. Mateo, in addition to his speed, has played exceptional defense at shortstop and has belted 12 home runs, seven triples, and 21 doubles. In recent years, a big part of the struggle was due to a disturbing lack of offense. This year, Baltimore has clung to their playoff lives on the backs of a strong bullpen and solid offense. What a difference a year makes.
Final Red Sox-Orioles Prediction & Pick
This may be more hope than anything, but Baltimore should be able to handle this one.
Final Red Sox-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Baltimore -1.5 (+158), over 8.5 (-110)
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