The Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays will finish up their crucial three-game series on Sunday Night Baseball. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Red Sox-Rays prediction and pick.
This series is about as important as it gets in early August. The Red Sox dropped the first two games of this series and dropped out of first place in the AL East at the same time. The Rays now lead the division by a half-game. If Tampa Bay manages to pull off a sweep of one of the best teams in baseball, they can begin to stretch their newfound division lead. Boston can win on Sunday and jump right back into first place. The stakes are high in this one, so it should make for a good watch.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Sunday night's series finale.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Rays Odds
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Boston Red Sox ML (+150)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-163)
Over 8 1/2 runs (-120)
Under 8 1/2 runs (+100)
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Boston's pitching rotation has been surprisingly good this season, but the real show has been their offense. They rank inside the top ten in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS. Seven of their nine hitters sport a high hard-hit percentage, with all seven owning a percentage over 43%. This is a really tough offense to deal with, and Rays starter Shane McClanahan will find that out the hard way.
McClanahan has been surprisingly good all season long, putting up a 3.93 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Both are very solid numbers, but there are some other stats that the Red Sox should be able to capitalize on. The lefty allows a 40.3% hard-hit percentage, which is on the higher end of the spectrum. He also allows an average exit velocity of 90.1, another number that is well above average. Both of these stats show that the Red Sox should be able to destroy the baseball against McClanahan, which usually leads to more than a few runs.
Boston starter Nick Pivetta hasn't had a great year, but it looks like he has Tampa Bay's number. Pivetta has faced the Rays twice this season and has put together two great outings. He's pitched a combined 11 innings against Tampa Bay and hasn't allowed a single run.
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
While Pivetta has had a lot of success against the Rays this season, it's hard to believe that that's going to continue. The Boston starter has struggled all season long, earning himself a 4.51 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Neither of those numbers are good, but they get even worse over Pivetta's last 15 starts. In that span, his ERA jumps to 5.05 with his WHIP rising to 1.37. The Rays should be able to finally put together some hits against Pivetta in this one.
It helps that Tampa Bay is a better offensive team against right-handed pitching. The Rays see a jump in batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage whenever they get to face a righty, so Pivetta is a very hittable opponent for this team.
The Red Sox have an intimidating offense, but Shane McClanahan should be able to handle the pressure. He's been pitching much better baseball lately, as he's seen his ERA drop to 3.38 over his last seven starts. It's certainly possible that McClanahan puts together another good performance and continues his hot streak.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick
The odds on the Red Sox are just too good to pass up. Pivetta has proven he can pitch well against the Rays, and he shouldn't even need to put together an elite performance in order for Boston to win. McClanahan is a pretty decent matchup for Boston, so they shouldn't have any trouble putting up runs. It's also hard to see Boston getting swept in the most important series of the year so far.
FINAL PICK: Boston Red Sox ML (+150)
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