MLB odds: Reds vs. Cubs prediction, odds, pick, and more – 7/27/2021
These NL Central rivals are both essentially out of playoff contention with the Milwaukee Brewers dominating their division. The Cubs have accepted this and are expected to be huge sellers at the trade deadline, with names like Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo potentially playing the second half of the season in a new uniform. The Reds are also likely to sell some pieces at the deadline. Regardless of their playoff situations (or lack thereof), these teams have nearly identical records, so another close game between division rivals should be in store on Tuesday night.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Tuesday’s game.
MLB Odds: Reds-Cubs Odds
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Cincinnati Reds ML (+164)
Chicago Cubs ML (-178)
Over 10 1/2 runs (-105)
Under 10 1/2 runs (-115)
Why The Reds Could Win
The Reds are a great offensive team, riding this prolific offense to most of their wins. They rank inside the top 10 in baseball in batting average, OBP, and OPS. The Reds’ lineup also has four starters who score above 40% in hard hit percentage to go along with five players who have a barrel percentage of 9% or higher. Both of those are very impressive stats that show that Cincinnati has some pop in the lineup despite missing some important players.
None of those stats bode well for Chicago starter Adbert Alzolay. Alzolay started off his rookie campaign pitching decent baseball, but his last seven starts have been disastrous. Over that span, the righty owns a 6.15 ERA to pair with a 1.43 WHIP. To make matters even worse for Alzolay, he allows a hard hit percentage of 42% and a barrel percentage of 11.3%. Both are poor numbers against a team that specializes in those categories.
The Reds are also significantly better against right-handed pitching than they are against lefties. Cincinnati’s batting average is .234 against lefties but skyrockets up to .254 against righties. The Reds’ OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage all follow suit and rise by an impressive amount whenever facing a right-handed pitcher.
Why The Cubs Could Win
The Cubs have been a pretty bad offensive team for the entirety of this season, but they have a good opportunity to turn that around on Tuesday night. Chicago is lucky enough to face Cincinnati starter Vladimir Gutierrez in this contest.
Gutierrez has only made 10 starts this season, but none of them were particularly inspiring. His last seven starts have been particularly bad, proven by his 6.03 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over that span. The Cubs should be able to score off Gutierrez despite their recent offensive struggles.
It helps that this game is taking place in Wrigley Field. Chicago’s offensive numbers are significantly better when playing at home, as they see their batting average jump from .216 on the road to .239 at home. The Cubs are 31-18 when they’re at home and 19-33 when they’re on the road. Home-field advantage should play a big part in this rivalry matchup.
Final Reds-Cubs Prediction & Pick
With the odds looking the way they do, the Reds have to be the pick here. There’s no way that Chicago should be this heavily favored against a team they are essentially an even matchup against. The Cubs do have a slight advantage on the mound, but it’s almost negligible especially when taking into account how good Cincinnati’s lineup is. This is a great upset pick.
FINAL PICK: Cincinnati Reds ML (+164)