The Los Angeles Dodgers return home fresh off a sweep to begin a new series with the Colorado Rockies. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Rockies-Dodgers prediction and pick.
Los Angeles currently stands at 81-47 and is 42-21 at home. If you put $100 on every single Dodgers game so far this season, you’d be down $310 on the moneyline.
Colorado currently stands at 58-69 and is only 15-47 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Rockies game so far this season, you’d be down $245 on the money line.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Rockies-Dodgers odds.
MLB Odds: Rockies-Dodgers Odds
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Colorado Rockies ML (+220)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-240)
Over 8.5 Runs (-115)
Under 8.5 Runs (-105)
Why The Rockies Could Win This Game
Kyle Freeland takes the ball for the Rockies in hopes of stopping a Dodgers team that's on a roll.
After a terrible start to the season, Freeland has looked much better in the second half. In his first eight starts, Freeland pitched to a 5.50 ERA and allowed nine home runs over 37.2 innings. In his last eight starts, Freeland holds a 3.26 ERA, and has only allowed four home runs over 47 innings.
The knee jerk reaction is to assume Freeland just pitched more games away from hitter-friendly Coors Field. However, Freeland pitched exactly four home games and four road games in both halves.
More impressively, Freeland has kept the Dodgers in check twice now. The lefty went six innings and allowed three runs in Colorado against Los Angeles, and went seven innings with only one earned run allowed in L.A. The Dodgers have struggled with lefties all year, and Freeland could continue that trend.
At the plate, the Rockies get a full nine innings against a bullpen starter. The Dodgers haven't announced who will start the game for them, but L.A. will have to use some combination of bullpen arms to get through the Rockies.
Even after Max Scherzer threw 7.2 innings yesterday, this Dodgers ‘pen has still pitched 14.2 innings in their last three games. Nearly all of the Dodgers best arms have pitched in two of their last three games, including both closer Kenley Jansen and set-up man Blake Treinen.
It's unlikely this Dodger ‘pen breaks, but we could see them bend. Even considering the Rockies weak offensive output on the road, Colorado should be able to scratch across a few runs on a beleaguered bullpen.
Why The Dodgers Could Win This Game
The Dodgers return to town as the second hottest team in the league, behind only the New York Yankees.
Los Angeles has looked nearly unbeatable of late, winning ten of their last eleven games. Now they get a chance to pick on a hapless Rockies team.
Colorado simply does not win on the road. They have the worst away record in the league, and their offensive numbers plummet away from Coors Field. The Rockies OPS plummets a whopping 224 points when they leave Colorado, going from .840 to .614. Their batting average is barely above the Mendoza Line on the road, standing at .212.
This Dodgers bullpen has the fourth lowest ERA, the sixth lowest WHIP, and has given up the second least home runs in the league. It's doubtful, even factoring in fatigue, that this Rockies offense produces much tonight.
As long as the Dodgers offense gives their team three or four runs, they'll be in excellent shape to win this one. Considering Kyle Freeland and the rockies bullpen track record, a few Dodgers runs seem inevitable.
In Freeland's 16 starts this year, he's allowed three earned in seven of them. Doesn't seem like much, but when you consider Freeland averages barely over five innings a start, it should give the Dodgers confidence that they'll get to the lefty.
Even if Freeland somehow shuts the Dodgers out, he'll still need a Rockies bullpen with the fourth highest ERA in baseball to close out the game. Closer Daniel Bard has been atrocious of late, allowing five earned runs in his last 0.2 innings, and the Rockies do not have a shutdown arm.
The Dodgers will get some runs tonight, whether it comes early against Freeland or late against a poor Colorado bullpen.
Final Rockies-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
Considering the Dodgers have yet to officially name a starter or someone who will get the bulk of the innings, there's no way anyone should be laying -240 juice on them just yet. The best play is on the total tonight, and that's the under. The Rockies have looked hopeless at producing runs on the road, and the Dodgers bats should show some hangover after a draining Padres series. Assuming Freeland can give the Rockies at least five quality innings, this under should cash fairly easily.
FINAL ROCKIES-DODGERS PREDICTION & PICK: UNDER 8.5 RUNS (-105)
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