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The Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the Colorado Rockies today in the first matchup of a four-game series. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Rockies-Brewers prediction and pick we have laid out below.
This will mark the first of two series between Colorado and Milwaukee this season, with the other coming in early September in Denver. The Rockies are in fourth place in the NL West at 43-50, but they entered the All-Star Break on a bit of a hot streak. The Brewers are 50-43 and currently hold a half-game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL Central lead. The Rockies play in a tough division, as they hope to gain ground on the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants.
Here are the Rockies-Brewers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Rockies-Brewers Odds
Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (+108) ML: (+240)
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (-130) ML: (-290)
Over: 7.5 (-102)
Under: 7.5 (-120)
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Why The Rockies Could Cover The Spread
After going as much as five games above .500 early in the season, Colorado's strong start came to a crashing halt in the month of May. The Rockies lost 26 out of 40 games starting on May 8, but they've rebounded nicely since, going 13-10 over their last 23 outings. This stretch included a five-game winning streak before losing their final game before the break.
From a momentum perspective, Colorado seems to have an edge. In addition to the Rockies' recent success, the Brewers lost eight of their last 11 contests before the All-Star Game. Milwaukee also lost its last two series against teams with losing records — including the Pittsburgh Pirates, who Colorado out-scored 18-10 last weekend.
The Rockies have been one of the hottest teams at the plate in the month of July, ranking in the top five in the MLB in OPS, batting average, and runs scored. Charlie Blackmon, C.J. Cron, and Jose Iglesias have each driven in 13 runs this month, which is tied for the third-most in the National League. Cron is also 10th in all of baseball with a 1.024 OPS during this stretch.
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
While recent struggles are a concern, the Brewers' consistency over the course of the season shouldn't be overlooked. Outside of the past couple of series, they've taken care of business against opponents with sub-.500 records, going 27-17 against teams with losing records.
Milwaukee could use some more offensive production, with its .235 batting average ranking third-to-last in the National League. However, the fact that Antonio Senzatela is getting the start for Colorado should spur some optimism. The Brewers are 35-28 against right-handed starters, and Senzatela is far from the league's elite. The sixth-year pro is 3-5 on the season with a 4.95 ERA, with an 0-2 record, and seven earned runs allowed in seven innings over his last two starts.
On the other side, pitching should be a strength for Milwaukee. 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes is set to take the mound for the Brewers, fresh off his second straight All-Star nod. Burnes has an impressive 2.14 ERA with a 7-4 record in 18 starts this season, but he's been even more productive than usual as of late. He's 4-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 60 strikeouts in his last seven outings. If the Rockies are able to get past Burnes, they'll still be going up against a bullpen that is superior to their own. Colorado relievers have posted a 4.69 ERA this season, the third-word in baseball, while the Brewers' bullpen has been nearly a run better with a 3.84 ERA.
Shortstop Will Adames continues to be a source of instant offense at the plate for Milwaukee, with 19 home runs on the year and four in July alone — both team-highs. If Adames can keep providing a spark and Christian Yelich breaks out of his July funk, during which he's posted a .225 batting average, the Brewers should be a serious threat moving forward.
Final Rockies-Brewers Prediction & Pick
The Brewers have an undeniable advantage in terms of starting pitching with Burnes on the mound. Outside of this, though, there just doesn't seem to be much separation between the two teams. And certainly not enough to justify Milwaukee covering a -1.5 spread at -130 odds. On the flip side, Colorado at +1.5 (+108) has serious value, especially when considering some of the Brewers' offensive struggles. A +240 money line bet on the Rockies would be tempting if anyone but Burnes was on the mound, but alas, that is not the case. Regardless, they've been the better team as of late and given their firepower at the plate, they have a good chance to bring in plus-money while giving bettors a one-run cushion to work with.
Final Rockies-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Rockies +1.5 (+108)