The Colorado Rockies take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Check out our MLB odds series for our Rockies Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Antonio Senzatela goes to the bump for the Rockies, while Merrill Kelly gets the call for the Diamondbacks.
Antonio Senzatela is a three-run pitcher. He has given up precisely three runs in five of his last seven starts. He has allowed at least three runs in 11 of his 16 starts so far this season. A 4.87 ERA is reflective of that degree of mediocrity. Senzatela is not pitching seven or eight innings and giving up three runs, either. He averages under five innings per start (77 2/3 innings for his 16 starts). That's simply not good enough for him or the Rockies. Yes, Senzatela has pitched five games this season in which he has allowed no more than one run, but in a 16-start portfolio, five appearances is roughly one-third of his total number of outings. Being good one-third of the time is great for a hitter, but it's not remotely acceptable for a starting pitcher.
Merrill Kelly has had a terrific year for the Diamondbacks. He has been so good that he was a hot topic of discussion before the trade deadline. He never did get dealt, however. The Diamondbacks would have been foolish to let him go. Kelly has a 2.87 ERA. He just finished an amazing month of July in which he posted a 1.31 ERA. This is his second month of 2022 in which he has produced an ERA under 1.35. He registered a 1.27 ERA in April. Kelly pitched 41 1/3 innings in July, giving up just six earned runs on only eight walks. He allowed only two home runs in the month. He struck out 33 batters, giving him a strikeout-walk ratio of better than 4 to 1. Kelly is not an overpowering pitcher, but he mixes his pitches well and hits his spots. He has been a bright light in a difficult season for the D-Backs.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Rockies-Diamondbacks MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Rockies-Diamondbacks Odds
Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (-150)
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+125)
Over: 8 (-108)
Under: 8 (-112)
Why The Rockies Could Cover the Spread
The Rockies lost four of five games earlier this week to the San Diego Padres, who were flying high after acquiring Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Josh Hader, and Brandon Drury. True, the Padres didn't have Soto, Bell, or Drury for a Tuesday doubleheader they swept from the Rockies, but the news of the Soto trade had already broken, so the Padres were an energized, highly-motivated team. The Rockies were on the receiving end of that runaway freight train of San Diego momentum. The Rockies have a much more manageable matchup against the Diamondbacks. After getting worn out by the Padres, playing the D-Backs should be a much more attainable task for Colorado.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
Merrill Kelly is simply locked in right now. He has a 2.17 ERA in his last 10 starts. He has pitched at least six full innings in all 10 of those starts. He has been Arizona's most consistent pitcher this season. He is facing the Rockies away from Coors Field. Colorado has Kris Bryant and other key players injured. The Rockies are going nowhere, and the Diamondbacks have been a better team than Colorado so far this season. There's a lot to like about an Arizona pick.
Final Rockies-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
Some games are hard to figure out. This one is not. Merrill Kelly gives Arizona a significant advantage, and that's that. Don't overthink this one.
Final Rockies-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5
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