The Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners will wrap up a four-game series on Sunday afternoon. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Royals-Mariners prediction and pick.
The Royals come into this game as one of the hotter teams in MLB. Kansas City has won seven of its last 10 contests, including the last three games against the Mariners. Their playoff hopes might be dead, but the Royals are playing some of their best baseball right now.
Seattle, on the other hand, still has a chance at making the postseason. The Mariners are only 5.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot in the AL, but they can't afford to lose to teams like the Royals if they want to make it. Seattle needs to regroup and win this game to avoid being swept by Kansas City and keep its playoff hopes alive.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Sunday's game.
MLB Odds: Royals-Mariners Odds
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Kansas City Royals ML (+136)
Seattle Mariners ML (-147)
Over 8 1/2 runs (-110)
Under 8 1/2 runs (-110)
Why The Royals Could Win
Kansas City's offense hasn't been great this year, but they appear to be on a bit of a hot streak. They've scored five or more runs in three of their last four games, and that streak has a chance of continuing against Mariners pitcher Marco Gonzales.
Gonzales has been solid on the year, but the Royals have some statistical advantages over him. Kansas City is a significantly better offense against left-handed pitching, shown by the improvements in batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS. Gonzales is also a slightly worse pitcher when he plays at home, with his ERA jumping from 3.91 on the road to 4.33 at T-Mobile Park.
The Royals will entrust this start to pitcher Brady Singer. Singer hasn't had a great year, but he's lucky enough to be going against one of the worst offenses in MLB in this game. The Mariners rank in the bottom five in the league in batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, and OBP. It's reasonable to expect Singer to put together a good performance against an offense that's this poor.
Why The Mariners Could Win
When the Mariners win, it's almost always based on the strength of their pitching. This game is no different. Marco Gonzales may not have the most impressive stats at first glance, but a look at his last seven games shows just how dominant Gonzales has been recently. Over that span, the lefty has earned a 1.85 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. Those numbers are obviously unsustainable, but it's entirely possible that Gonzales continues his elite pitching streak against a Royals offense that ranks in the bottom 10 in baseball in most important batting stats.
Admittedly, this Seattle lineup is far from good. Luckily for them, they're facing a pitcher who is also far from good. Brady Singer has earned a 5.07 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP on the year, two poor numbers. Singer also allows a walk rate of 9.6% and an expected batting average of .251. Both numbers are on the higher end of the spectrum and should help a Mariners offense that struggles to get men on base.
Final Royals-Mariners Prediction & Pick
The Mariners are the obvious pick in this one. Gonzales' recent hot streak is reason enough to believe that they'll come out with a win here, and it certainly helps that they're facing a less-than-capable pitcher in this game. Lock in the Mariners with confidence in this series finale.
FINAL PICK: Seattle Mariners ML (-147)
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