The Cleveland Guardians are set to host the Detroit Tigers today in the final matchup of a four-game set at Progressive Field. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Tigers-Guardians prediction and pick we have laid out below.

Cleveland was on a bit of a hot streak entering the series, and picked up a win in the first game to mark its eighth victory in nine games. However, following back-to-back losses to the Tigers, the Guardians find themselves barely holding on to the American League Central lead at 62-55, with the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox now just one game back.

The Tigers — who are dead last in the division at 45-74 and trail Cleveland by 18 games — have embraced their role of spoiler over the past two days, notching 7-5 and 4-3 victories over their AL Central foe. In doing so, they snapped an eight-game losing streak of their own.

Here are the Tigers-Guardians MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Tigers-Guardians Odds

Detroit Tigers: +1.5 (-113)

Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (-106)

Over: 7.5 (-102)

Under: 7.5 (-120)

Why The Tigers Could Cover The Spread

With Daniel Norris — who typically plays a relief role — expected to get the start for the Tigers, it's inevitable that today will be a bullpen. That might now be a bad thing, though. Detroit relievers have a 3.32 bullpen ERA, which ranks third in the American League. Norris has also picked up his production after a forgettable start to the season, posting a 3.38 ERA in three outings in March and tossing 4 2/3 shutout innings in a start against the White Sox last week.

There aren't many reasons to feel good about the Tigers' ability to produce at the plate, but the recent performance of shortstop Javier Baez does inspire a little optimism. He's batting .270 over the last 30 days, which is 43 points higher than his season average while recording 10 RBI, two home runs, six doubles, 12 runs scored, and four stolen bases during this stretch. Third baseman Harold Castro has been solid as well, hitting .286 with 10 RBI, one home run, seven doubles, and 11 runs scored over the past month.

Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread

Regardless of Norris' recent success and the overall performance of the Detroit bullpen, the Guardians still seem to hold a substantial advantage in the pitching department. On the Tigers' side, Norris still has a 5.97 ERA for the season, which is only slightly better than the career-worst 6.16 ERA he posted last year. As for Cleveland, projected starter Cal Quantrill has been solid on the mound in 2022, with his 3.67 ERA sitting just two points above his career average. He's also increased his production as of late, recording a 1.89 ERA and .156 opponent's batting average in three starts in August. His last time out was his best start of the season, allowing one hit while striking out seven in seven shutout innings.

It also helps Cleveland's case that the Tigers have been, statistically, the worst offensive team in baseball this season. Detroit ranks last in the MLB in OPS, home runs, slugging percentage, and runs scored, and ranks near the bottom of the league in most hitting categories since the All-Star break. Cleveland hasn't been a dominant team at the plate, ranking outside the top 10 in OPS, runs scored, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage, among other categories, but the Guardians' .252 batting average does rank eighth in the MLB. They've been hitting slightly above this mark recently, with a .263 batting average since the All-Star break.

Cleveland also has some of the league's top performers at the plate over the last month in its lineup. Infielders Jose Ramirez and Amed Rosario each rank among the top 10 in all of baseball with 22 and 20 RBI, respectively, in the last 30 days. Second baseman Andres Gimenez has a top-10 OPS during this stretch, while outfielder Steven Kwan is tied for third with 21 runs scored.

Final Tigers-Guardians Prediction & Pick

Even with the Tigers being close to even money on the +1.5 run line, it's difficult to feel confident in a team whose offense has been nothing short of abysmal in 2022. The over-under is tricky as well. 7 1/2 runs is typically a solid number to take an over, but given that Cleveland has struggled as a team at the plate, at least in comparison to other playoff hopefuls, there's hardly a guarantee on the over. On the flip side, at 7 1/2 runs, all it takes is one or two big innings to make an underbet feel foolish. At -106 on the -1.5 run line, the best play here seems to be banking on the Guardians to rebound from back-to-back losses and return to the form they had displayed leading up to this series.

Final Tigers-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Guardians -1.5 (-106)