The Twins head to Fenway Park for the first game of a three-game set against the Red Sox. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Twins-Red Sox prediction and pick.
These teams are trending in opposite directions this season. The Red Sox are fighting for both the AL Wild Card and the AL East title, while the Twins playoff chances are all but over. This is an intriguing pitching matchup featuring two of the AL's better rookie arms.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Tuesday's game.
MLB Odds: Twins-Red Sox Odds
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Minnesota Twins (+187)
Boston Red Sox (-204)
Over 10 runs (-117)
Under 10 runs (-103)
Why The Twins Could Win
Rookie pitcher Griffin Jax has been pitching some of his best baseball over his past five starts. Since July 19, Jax is 2-0 with a 2.73 ERA and 21 strikeouts. In those starts, the Twins have gone an impressive 4-1. Although Minnesota was just swept by the Yankees, they had recent success winning multiple games each in series against the Astros, White Sox, and Rays – three of the American League's premier teams.
Playing in the bright lights of Fenway, this is an excellent opportunity for Jax to showcase his talent against one of baseball's best teams. With Minnesota ranking second in the AL with 175 team home runs, the offense should be able to put up enough runs to back up Jax and give him his fourth victory of the season.
Why The Red Sox Could Win
The Red Sox counter with a rookie pitcher of their own in this matchup. Tanner Houck has been one of the best pitchers for Boston this season, even though he's pitched in just nine games. But when he has been on the hill, he's been extremely effective. Houck holds a 3.12 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 34 2/3 innings. Surprisingly, he's yet to record all win all season though.
Since returning to the Sox in mid-July, Houck's ERA has shrunk to 2.59. While the Twins offense is one of the better ones in the AL, expect them to be overpowered by Houck, who has been playing his best baseball lately. With the Red Sox coming off a thrilling 8-4 victory that ended with a walk-off grand slam over Texas, expect that offensive momentum to carry in to tonight's contest. Boston will score at least four runs in backing up another gem by Houck, as the Red Sox give him his first victory of the 2021 season.
Final Twins-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
The last time I picked the Twins over a much better team (Yankees), I looked foolish. I'm going to back Houck and the Red Sox here, who are the better baseball team, are playing at home, arguably have the better pitcher, and overall are the much safer pick. Given that Minnesota can still keep this is a close game in a low-scoring contest though, the Red Sox moneyline is my best bet.
Bonus pick: Under 10 runs – if both starters can pitch like their usual selves, the bullpens should have a wide enough margin for error to keep this total under 10 runs.
FINAL PICK: Red Sox MONEYLINE
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