The Minnesota Twins will head to Progressive Field to begin a four-game series with the Cleveland Guardians on Monday evening. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Twins-Guardians prediction and pick.
The Twins are coming off a series where they won two of three from the Colorado Rockies at home. Minnesota is 5-5 over 10 games and 11-12 in June. Additionally, they are 3-3 over their last six road games. The Guardians are coming off a series where the Red Sox swept them in Cleveland. Likewise, the Guardians have lost four in a row and look to end the slump against a Minnesota team they faced last week. Cleveland is 3-3 against the Twins and will welcome them to Progressive Field for the first time this year. The Guardians are 10-12 against the Twins at home since 2019.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Twins-Guardians odds:
MLB odds: Twins-Guardians Odds
Twins: -1.5 (+142) Twins ML (-122)
Guardians: +1.5 (-172) Guardians ML (+104)
Over: 8 (-104)
Under: 8 (-118)
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Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
The Twins will roll with Sonny Gray on the hill. Gray is 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA. He tossed just four innings, allowing four runs (three earned) on eight hits in an outing against the Guardians last week. Gray has yielded inconsistent results, as he has had two straight starts with five innings or fewer. These marks followed a stretch of three games where he tossed six innings or more. Gray is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts against the Guardians. He is 5-3 with a 3.47 ERA in 13 starts against the Guardians. However, he is also 2-3 with a 5.28 ERA in five starts at Progressive Field.
Luis Arraez is having a great season, batting .349 with four home runs and 26 RBIs. However, he has struggled against the Guardians, batting .217 with one home run, four RBIs, and two runs scored across six games. Arraez is batting .264 with one home run, 17 RBIs, and 15 runs scored across 43 career games against the Guardians. Likewise, he is batting .268 with four RBIs and six runs in 18 road games, so his numbers have remained consistent both at home and on the road.
Carlos Correa has been a great fit for the Twins, batting .301 with seven home runs, 24 RBIs, and 29 runs scored. Likewise, he has demolished the Guardians, batting .429 with two home runs and two RBIs through three games against Cleveland. Correa is batting .245 with seven home runs, 16 RBIs, and 24 runs scored through 38 games against the Guardians. Additionally, he is batting .250 with two home runs, eight RBIs, and 14 runs scored through 19 games at Progressive Field.
The Twins will cover the spread if Gray can give them a solid outing. He needs six innings with two or fewer runs allowed to make this start a success. Also, Arraez and Correa must continue to put the Twins on their backs.
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
The Guardians are rolling with Triston McKenzie on the hill. McKenzie is 4-5 with a 3.51 ERA. He tossed 4 1/3 innings in his last start, allowing six earned runs on nine hits. Likewise, McKenzie surrendered three home runs. He must keep the ball in the yard, as he has yielded five home runs against the Twins in 2022. Mckenzie is 0-1 with a 7.15 ERA through two starts against the Twins. However, he has some help on offense.
Jose Ramirez is batting .303 with 16 home runs, 63 RBIs, and 45 runs scored. Alternatively, he is struggling against Minnesota, batting .231 with one home run, three RBIs, and five runs scored across six games. Ramirez is batting .283 with 20 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 76 runs scored through 130 career games against the Twins.
Framil Reyes is not having a good year, batting .209 with four home runs and 14 RBIs. Likewise, he has not done much against Minnesota, batting .200 with one home run, three RBIs, and one run scored across five games. Reyes is batting .206 with eight home runs, 21 RBIs, and 12 runs scored through 39 games against the Twins. Likewise, he bats .212 with five home runs, nine RBIs, and seven runs scored in 61 career games at home against Minnesota.
The Guardians cover the spread if McKenzie pitches a decent game. He must avoid mistakes over the heart of the plate and keep the Twins from taking him the distance. Also, Ramirez and Reyes must both contribute to making this offense go.
Final Twins-Guardians Prediction & Pick
Not many expected this to be a battle for first place, yet here we are. The Twins are the shock of the year as they lead the AL Central, while the Guardians sit in second, just two games behind. Expect the Guardians to come out strong for this one, hoping to end the slide. Do not expect them to dominate.
Final Twins-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Guardians ML (+104)
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