The Minnesota Twins will attempt to end the misery at the hands of the Cleveland Guardians as the AL Central rivals continue their series. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Twins-Guardians prediction and pick.
The Guardians swept a day-night doubleheader from the Twins, including a 15-inning thriller in the second game. Now, the Guardians are 12-5 in this head-to-head series with two left to play and a commanding seven-game lead with 17 matches left for each team.
The Guardians won the first game 5-1 behind solid hitting and a great outing by their star pitcher. First, Jose Ramirez clubbed the baseball well. He went 4 for 5 with a home run and two RBIs. Then, Shane Bieber tossed eight innings, allowing one earned run on four hits and striking out six. The Guardians left 10 runners on the basepaths, but that proved not to hurt them in this battle.
The second game went a little longer. Despite the new runner-on second-base rule (a rule that many fans dislike), this game still went to the 15th inning. Ironically, the game ended on a fielding error, allowing Austin Hedges to score the winning run.
Ahmed Rosario was the hitter at the plate during the winning run and had a great game. He finished with four hits, a 4 for 8 statline, and four RBIs. Meanwhile, Gio Urshela did well for the Twins, going 3 for 6 with a walk and two RBIs.
Joe Ryan will go for the Twins today. Ryan is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA over two starts in September. The Twins pulled him in his last outing, despite Ryan throwing a no-hitter after seven innings. Can he replicate that outing? Ryan has done well against the Guardians so far, going 1-0 with a 3.00 ERS over two starts.
Cody Morris gets the nod for the Twins. Morris is 0-1 with a 2.79 ERA. Recently, he lasted 3 2/3 innings while allowing one earned run on two hits, but he also walked five batters. Morris has not faced the Twins.
Here are the Twins-Guardians MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-Guardians Odds
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+146)
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-176)
Over: 8 (-118)
Under: 8 (-104)
Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
The Twins have lost eight in a row against the Guardians. However, many of those losses were close games, such as the extra-inning affair from last night. The Twins match up well with the Guardians, statistically. Unfortunately, they have lost numerous close games.
The Twins rank 12th in batting average, 12th in on-base percentage, 16th in runs, 12th in home runs, and 11th in slugging percentage. Alternatively, their pitching is not as good. Minnesota ranks 18th in team ERA. Thus, their pitching staff must do better, especially in the game's later stages.
Ryan is an ace in the making. Likewise, he showed what he could do in his last outing and may give the Guardians lineup some problems. Ryan can only do so much by himself. Moreover, he needs help from his bullpen. His opponents had not had a hit when the Twins pulled him in the last outing. Then, they finished with three runs. The bullpen allowed all those runs and must find ways to avoid a letdown. Subsequently, the hitters need to build a large enough cushion.
The Twins will cover the spread if Ryan can pitch almost as well as he did in his last outing. Consequently, a great outing by Ryan and some timely hitting can guarantee a win to end the losing streak.
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
The Guardians are similar to the Twins in many ways. However, they have capitalized on their chances in these head-to-head matchups, while the Twins have not.
The Guardians rank 10th in batting average, 16th in on-base percentage, 20th in runs, 29th in home runs, and 24th in slugging percentage. Alternatively, they have an excellent pitching staff, ranking eighth in team ERA. Yesterday was the only game in recent memory where their pitching staff did not hold the lead, and yet they still managed to win the game. Ultimately, they have a team close to contending, and it is difficult to beat them.
The Guardians will cover the spread if Morris pitches well. Additionally, they will thrive if their hitters can build a large cushion to relieve the pressure off the young pitcher.
Final Twins-Guardians Prediction & Pick
The losing streak has to end soon. Thus, it is likelier it will end on a day when a solid young pitcher is on the mound. Ryan is that guy. Yes, he can get the job done and shut down this lineup. Expect the Twins to respond after last night and end the losing spell against the Guardians.
Final Twins-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+146)
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