The Chicago White Sox take on the Seattle Mariners. Check out our MLB odds series for our White Sox Mariners prediction and pick.
Johnny Cueto gets the ball for the White Sox, while Logan Gilbert will start for the Mariners.
Johnny Cueto has been outstanding for the White Sox in 2022. His ERA for the year is 2.93, but that doesn't begin to tell the full story. Cueto has pitched eight full innings on several occasions this year. He has rested an injured and overworked Chicago bullpen. He has stepped up in a year when Lucas Giolito has struggled. He has done so much for this team, even though the Sox are still in danger of missing the postseason in a very weak American League Central Division.
Cueto has given up more than three earned runs in only one start since May 29. Since the beginning of July, Cueto has allowed 22 earned runs in 11 starts, encompassing 75 innings pitched. If you take away his only bad start from the past two months — a late-August game in which the Diamondbacks got to him for seven runs in five innings — Cueto has allowed only 15 earned runs since the start of July, even though he is pitching more innings than nearly every other starter in baseball, Sandy Alcantara being one of the few exceptions.
Logan Gilbert has been very solid for the Mariners this season, posting a 3.35 ERA. As long as he doesn't pitch against the New York Yankees, he is in very good shape. In Gilbert's last nine starts, his only two outings with more than three earned runs allowed were against the Yankees, who tagged him for 13 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings pitched in two consecutive outings in the first eight days of August. In the other seven starts from Gilbert's last nine appearances, he has pitched 53 2/3 innings and allowed just 12 earned runs, an ERA just over two runs. Gilbert hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last three starts. He, like the Mariners, is in a very good place right now.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the White Sox-Mariners MLB odds.
MLB Odds: White Sox-Mariners Odds
Chicago White Sox: +1.5 (-162)
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+134)
Over: 7.5 (-108)
Under: 7.5 (-112)
Why The White Sox Could Cover the Spread
Johnny Cueto is hard to bet against. That doesn't mean the White Sox will win, but he has been so consistent for this team that you know the White Sox are likely to have a good chance to win when he pitches. The problem is not and has not been Cueto, in looking at Chicago's season. The problem is the White Sox' offense. Cueto, though, is reliable, and if the Sox give him four runs, he will probably win.
Logan Gilbert is a very good pitcher, but he has more ups and downs than Cueto does. There is not a large gap between these pitchers, but if you did have to choose, you would almost certainly take Cueto.
Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
After getting home very late on Monday morning — following a very long rain delay in Cleveland on Sunday, in a game which needed to be completed due to postseason scheduling and related needs — the Mariners were predictably flat at the plate against the White Sox on Monday. The Mariners had barely any rest. Now, after a night in which they could sleep in their own beds and physically recover, the M's — who have been playing great baseball (they won seven in a row before Monday's loss) — should be able to bounce back and beat the White Sox. Logan Gilbert can shut down the inconsistent hitters the Sox will send to the plate.
Final White Sox-Mariners Prediction & Pick
This is a stay-away game given the close pitching matchup and the Mariners' travel schedule, but if you insist on a pick, take the White Sox due to Johnny Cueto's consistency.
Final White Sox-Mariners Prediction & Pick: White Sox +1.5