The Houston Astros will host the New York Yankees in the first of a three-game set at Minute Maid Park on Friday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Yankees-Astros prediction and pick.
This highly-touted American League matchup will feature two teams on completely different trajectories right now. Houston has been one of the hottest teams in baseball and will look to extend their lead in the AL Central over the weekend. New York, on the other hand, is fighting for their lives as they're just two games above .500.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Yankees-Astros odds.
MLB Odds: Yankees-Astros Odds
New York Yankees +1.5 (-165)
Houston Astros -1.5 (+145)
Over 9.5 Runs (+100)
Under 9.5 Runs (-120)
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
The New York Yankees have been one of the most disappointing teams in all of baseball this season. They entered 2021 with the best odds of winning the American League and are now fighting for life with the All-Star break around the corner. The Yankees are 4-6 over their last 10 games and now nine games back of the Red Sox in the AL East. New York has been struggling and it doesn't help that many of their key pitchers are currently on the shelf heading into this series.
If it weren't for Aaron Judge, this team would most likely be in worse shape than they are. Judge has been the clear leader of this group as he leads the team in batting average, home runs, RBI, and OBP. Despite the success of Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees are still averaging just 4.16 runs per game on the season. Their depleted pitching staff hasn't gotten the job done either and the Yankees now have a -0.14 average run differential in road games.
New York will turn to left-hander Nestor Cortes for the series opener. Cortes has been effective out of the bullpen with a 0-1 record and 1.29 ERA through eight appearances. The southpaw will make his second start of the season as the Yankees look to find a solution in their depleted rotation. Cortes tossed 3.1 innings of one-run ball against the Mets in his first start of the season.
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
The Houston Astros have been one of the hottest teams in all of baseball this season. After a bit of a slow start, the Astros forgot how to lose games and now sit at 54-34 on the season. They are currently 4.5 games above the Oakland Athletics in the AL West standings with a good opportunity to gain even more ground over the weekend. Houston has been great at home with a 12-5 record over their last 17 games at Minute Maid Park.
The Astros have the best lineup in all of baseball. They are currently averaging 5.55 runs per game, which is by far the best mark in the league. Houston has the deepest lineup in baseball that has produced at this level despite the absence of Alex Bregman for extended periods of time. This lineup will be chomping at the bits to get a look at the inexperienced Yankee starter.
Houston will turn to right-hander Jake Odorizzi for the series opener. Odorizzi has been solid for the Astros with a 3-3 record and 3.70 ERA through 10 starts. He has been extremely effective lately with just one run allowed over his last 16 innings of work. His strikeout numbers are low, but the Astros right-hander has a sub-one WHIP and has done a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark this season.
Final Yankees-Astros Prediction & Pick
Everyone's natural reaction is to immediately think over when you look at this matchup and rightfully so. In past years, I would be on the over every single time I saw this matchup on the calendar. I can't say the same this year, though. I'm leaning toward to under because of the Yankees inefficient offense and their effective bullpen. Houston has been crushing, but the under is actually 4-1 over their last five games. I expect a high-intensity matchup, which will put more of a premium on runs.
FINAL PICK: Under 9.5 Runs (-120)
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