The Indiana Pacers will be deploying a starting lineup that features Myles Turner as the only returning starter until Victor Oladipo returns from injury.
Last season, Turner's production was highlighted by a league-leading average of 2.7 blocks per game. He averaged 13.3 points and 7.2 rebounds to go along with that impressive achievement. While he took the next step defensively, he will look to build off that in 2019-20 in other areas as it will mark the start of his four-year, $72 million contract extension.
It is likely that Turner will play more than the 28.6 minutes per game than he averaged last season now that Domantas Sabonis will be starting alongside him. Exactly how much longer he may play remains to be seen. For a rough frame of reference, adjusting his production from 2018-19 as if it were played over 32 minutes per game would translate to averages of 14.9 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks.
Here are three numbers for Myles Turner to target this season:
3. Average at least 9-10 rebounds per game
The Pacers have the goal of being a ‘much better' rebounding team during the upcoming season. Going from Thaddeus Young to Domantas Sabonis at the power forward spot should naturally translate to improvement. However, individual growth from Turner in this area would only amplify any potential progress achieved as a unit.
https://twitter.com/GrantAfseth/status/1177606299007082496?s=20
Last season, Turner averaged 11.4 defensive rebounding chances and came away with 5.8 defensive rebounds per game, resulting in a 50.8 percent recovery rate. There is a combination of factors that come into play with the recovery rate that involves areas of potential self-improvement, surface-level negatives that are net positives, and also systematic flaws from the Pacers' defense.
The main area of personal growth on the defensive boards that Turner can achieve is making earlier and more forceful boxout efforts when possible. There are situations when some of the bigger centers in the league are able to push him out of the way and come up with an offensive rebound. If he can minimize these types of plays, it would only reinforce a potential case as a Defensive Player of the Year.
There are opponent offensive rebounds that commonly end in Turner forcing a missed putback attempt, often creating defensive rebounds for teammates. These are sequences that count as a rebounding chance and go against his recovery rate because he is within the vicinity of a rebound. However, the results are a net positive for the Pacers because no points are allowed or they come up with the ball.
Perhaps the greatest factor of all is that Turner often has to clean up the messes that his teammates make by failing to contain dribble penetration. Having to leave his feet to contest a takes away from a proper rebounding position. To make matters worse, there are plays when his teammates will stand and watch instead of helping the helper and the Pacers need to change that.
Lastly, something that Turner should look to change is the fact that he deferred 1.2 defensive rebounding chances per game to teammates in 2018-19 and that a lofty 37.4 percent of his defensive rebounds were contested. Not allowing his teammates to grab uncontested rebounds that could have easily gone to him would positively influence his individual production.
Managing to average at least within the 9-10 range for rebounds per game would portray significant progression from Turner and should be his goal. It would also help strengthen his case for competing for the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year Award or a spot on an NBA All-Defensive Team.
2. Attempt close to 5 three-pointers per game
The Pacers are going to need to maximize their floor spacing with their decision to start two big men together. The shooting ability that Turner brings to the table as a stretch-five would help significantly in this regard if it were used more often.
During the 2018-19 season, Turner averaged a career-most 2.6 three-point attempts and that was a sign of progress towards optimizing his shooting tendencies. It was also the first season of his career that featured a higher percentage of his field-goal attempts occur from beyond the arc (25.1 percent) compared to between 16 feet and the three-point line (24.4 percent).
There are still plenty of plays when Turner could turn deep mid-range attempts into shots from beyond the arc. Whether it's in the pick-and-pop, flashing to the ball, or spacing the floor in spot-up, making it a point to get behind the perimeter would boost his three-point shooting total. These are sequences that mostly occur near the top of the key and on the wings.
A particular area where the Pacers should look to involve Turner's perimeter shooting ability more is from the corners as opposed to stationing him in the dunker's spot. He attempted a total of 16 corner three-pointers last season and that accounted for only 2.1 percent of his field-goal attempts, according to NBA.com.
An additional layer for Turner's offensive repertoire could be added by taking more three-pointers. Opposing teams would likely close out harder on his spot-ups and pick-and-pops, creating scenarios where he can blow by defenders to get to the rim or get them to fall for a shot fake. Blowing by a center, in particular, results in a considerable advantage given that there is no rim protector left in position to significantly impact the finish.
It remains to be seen how flexible McMillan will be with allowing his starting center to shoot three-pointers in his half-court offense this season. While he has stated that he wants his team to shoot more three-pointers, that has proven basically be just a yearly talking point. Allowing Turner to let it fly from deep more would help to optimize the team's offense and maximize his skill-set.
1. Lead the NBA in blocked shots again
It is not easy to lead the league in blocks once but Turner wants to do it again in 2019-20. Managing to accomplish such a feat would not only help to maximize a potential resume for Defensive Player of the Year, but it may be a necessity with the new personnel that the Pacers will be using alongside him.
https://twitter.com/GrantAfseth/status/1178043466736996352?s=20
The personnel in the Pacers' starting lineup and largely throughout their rotation, in general, are going to need Turner to be a great interior paint protector. Going from Thaddeus Young to Sabonis is going to sharply drop the effectiveness of the team's help defense and that will require the already strong impact of Turner to have to further increase.
The blocked shots that Turner records go well beyond an exciting play and a flashy statistic. The Pacers frequently recovered possession following a block that he recorded and did so at a rate well above expectation. Considering how they are likely going to force turnovers at a significantly lower rate with their new personnel, they will need dynamic defensive plays to be made whenever possible.
Total blocks vs recovered blocks, 2019 (assuming an average recovery rate of 57.2%) pic.twitter.com/2HS6CpYKrY
— Nathan Walker (@bbstats) September 28, 2019
The 2018-19 season put Turner on the national media's radar as a very impactful defender but they apparently felt that they needed to see more. Being the anchor of an effective defense despite underwhelming supporting personnel while at the same time leading the league in blocks and upping his rebounding figures would be a great way to do it.
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