The Milwaukee Bucks head in to Game 2 of the NBA Finals against the Phoenix Suns looking to steal home court after losing Game 1. It’s time to continue our NBA Finals odds series and make a Bucks-Suns prediction and pick for Game 2.
The Bucks hold an overall record of 12-6 in the postseason and are 10-8 against the spread. Milwaukee is 5-5 on the road after falling in Game 1 in Talking Stick Resort Arena.
The Suns stand at 13-4 overall and 12-5 against the spread in the postseason. Phoenix is 7-2 in its home arena in the playoffs so far.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Bucks-Suns Game 2 odds.
NBA Finals Odds: Bucks-Suns Game 2 Odds
Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns -5.5 (-110)
Over 219.5 Points (-110)
Under 219.5 Points (-110)
*Watch Game 2 of the NBA Finals LIVE with fuboTV*
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
Seeing Giannis Antetokounmpo's name off the injury report was a relief for the Bucks in Game 1, but it was clear that the former MVP was not 100%.
Giannis attempted only 11 field goal attempts in the game, his lowest output while playing at least 30 minutes in the entire postseason. However, there is a silver lining to the Greek Freak's quiet performance.
For one, Giannis was fairly efficient, hitting six of his 11 shots, and grabbing 17 rebounds. He also got to the free-throw line 12 times, just the second time in the last five games he's shot double-digit attempts from the charity stripe. Yes, it's obvious Giannis isn't at full strength. But it seems he's closer to 80% than 50%, and hasn't lost his aggressive play-style.
This is massively important for the Bucks at the offensive end, where they struggled in Game 1. The Bucks shot the ball well from beyond the arc, but lost the paint battle and were crushed in the mid-range game.
Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday combined to shoot 45% from inside the arc, which isn't terrible. The Bucks biggest problem is their number of possessions.
The only Buck that shot below 40% from the field in Game 1 was Holiday. Milwaukee just needs to get more shots up. An aggressive Giannis who pushes the ball at every opportunity will jack those numbers higher, and it seems he has enough in the tank to do it.
Defensively, the Bucks did a good job defending the arc (Suns shot 32.4% from three), and a respectable job overall in contesting shots from the field. Phoenix made a bunch of tough jumpers, as Chris Paul and Devin Booker have been doing their entire careers.
So how could the Bucks improve? Cut down on the fouls.
In Game 1, the Suns shot a whopping 26 free throws, and made 25 of them. Don't expect a repeat of this in Game 2. The Bucks fouled the second least in the league in the regular season, and the Suns attempted the second least free throws in the NBA in the same span.
Take away 6-8 of those gimme points, and this game comes down to the wire. Expect Milwaukee to be less handsy and avoid a free-throw parade in Game 2.
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
In their first Finals win in 28 years, the Suns played some excellent basketball on both ends of the floor.
It's a performance we're used to seeing from a Phoenix team that has now covered as a favorite eight of eleven times this postseason. The Suns overwhelm teams with an onslaught of capable scorers, and it feels like there's never a unit on the floor for Phoenix that isn't running up the numbers.
So far this postseason, Monty William's group includes six guys that are averaging double-digit scoring. Two thirds of the Suns team members that have played in at least 14 playoff games along this run are giving Phoenix ten points or more.
This was on full display in Game 1, where six guys hit the double digit mark and three Suns scored 20+. When a team is clicking this well, it's tough to see how they'll be stopped.
The scariest part, and best sign for Suns bettors, is that Phoenix didn't even play their best basketball. They shot only 32.4% from three, 4.6% lower than they've been shooting this postseason. Even their field goal percentage was down from their postseason average, from 47.7% in the playoffs to 46.6% in Game 1.
So the Suns missed more shots than they usually do, and still won by 13 points. Scary stuff for Milwaukee futures bettors.
This was definitely a team win, but if one player deserves the most credit, it's Chris Paul. CP3 was essential to the Suns on both ends of the floor.
Not only did he score 32 points and dish nine dimes, but he completely controlled the pace on his home floor. Every time the Bucks made a run, it seemed like Paul took the ball, ran down the shot clock, and drilled a momentum killer in someone's grill.
Milwaukee simply can not win this series in a battle of the half-court sets, and Paul knows this. As the smartest player on the floor, he'll continue to give the Suns the best defense on the offensive end by killing clock and minimizing transition opportunities for the Bucks.
Final Bucks-Suns Game 2 Prediction & Pick
After seeing the Suns dismantle the Bucks in most aspects in Game 1, it's tough to see how Milwaukee is going to bounce back, especially when their best player isn't at full capacity. Even taking into account that the Suns lost Dario Saric for the series in Game 1 to a brutal ACL injury, the Suns have the depth edge to overcome a shaky Bucks second unit. It seems like the Bucks must do everything right plus rely on the Suns to make some serious mistakes to steal a game in Phoenix. The odds that this happens are low. With Paul at the helm, this team is primed to hold their ground in the desert. Take the Suns with the points.
FINAL BUCKS-SUNS GAME 2 PREDICTION: PHX 109, MIL 101 (PHOENIX SUNS -5.5)
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