The Milwaukee Bucks face off against the Phoenix Suns for the first time in the NBA Finals on their home floor on Sunday night. It’s time to continue our NBA Finals odds series and make a Suns-Bucks Game 3 prediction and pick.
The Bucks hold an overall record of 12-7 in the postseason and are 10-9 against the spread. Milwaukee is 7-1 on their home floor so far in the playoffs.
The Suns stand at 14-4 overall and 13-5 against the spread in the postseason. Phoenix is 6-2 in away from their home arena in their playoff run.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Suns-Bucks Game 3 odds.
NBA Finals Odds: Suns-Bucks Game 3 Odds
Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns +4.5 (-110)
Over 222 Points (-110)
Under 222 Points (-110)
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Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
The Bucks might be down two games, but the spirits are still high in Milwaukee. The Suns took care of business on their home court, now it's time for Giannis Antetokounmpo and company to do the same.
It was questionable whether Giannis would even suit up for this series, but he;s proved all doubters wrong in his first NBA Finals appearance.
In Game 2, the Greek Freak was essentially the only Bucks player who performed up to expectations. He scored 42 points to give the Bucks a chance of regaining home coury.
In the last two Finals games, Giannis is averaging 31.0 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in an effort to put this team on his back. One of the biggest reasons Milwaukee lost Game 2 was Giannis had no help. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday had poor performances to start the Finals.
The good news for Bucks backers is that these players are too good to slump for this long, and both have performed better on their home floor.
Middleton has shot over 50% from the field only three times, and both those occurrences where on the Bucks home floor.Both of Holiday;s highest scoring nights have come in Fiserv Forum.
It's well known that role players tep up on their home floor. Expect both Milwaukee's second options to have efficient nights in front of a crowd that's supported them unwaveringly through the postseason.
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
The Suns have been a cash cow all playoffs, especially when Vegas bookmarks them as favorites. So far, Phoenix has been favorites 11 times this postseason. The Suns have covered in eight of those games.
The reason for the Suns success lies primarily in their depth. Few teams match up to their elite starting lineup, and even fewer can keep up with their bench prowess.
The Suns have two guys (Cameron Payne and Cameron Johnson) averaging eight points or more in the postseason off the bench. The closest Bucks bench player is Bryn Forbes at 6.7 points per game.
When the rotations tighten, the Suns hold a clear advantage. Factor in Phoenix's strong starting group, and they make an even better case to go up 3-0.
Overall, the Suns are an extremely well rounded team. You can beat them in one area of the game, but it's nearly impossible to beat them on multiple levels.
In Game 1, the Bucks won the three-point battle, scoring 48 points from beyond the arc to the Suns 33. In Game 2, they won the paint battle, outscoring Phoenix 54 to 28. Still, Milwaukee is down 0-2.
In every level of the game, the Suns are deadlier and more consistent. Relying on streaky scorers like Middleton and Holiday is a recipe for disaster, especially against a group that has six guys averaging double-digit scoring.
Statistically, it's simply more likely that Phoenix gets enough points out of their squad to take a dominant hold of the series. It's a much better bet that the Suns have two or three guys of their six scorers go off then depending on the Bucks secondary scorers to heat up.
Final Suns-Bucks Game 3 Prediction & Pick
Similar to my Game 2 pick, I just don't see how the Bucks will keep up with a healthier, more well rounded squad that is the Suns. Phoenix has everything a championship squad needs, while Milwaukee still looks like it has holes to fill. Yes, the Bucks have performed well on their home floor, but the Suns are primed to end their run. I'll back Phoenix to win as underdogs, and I expect the Suns to take home the title in either four or five games.
FINAL BUCKS-SUNS GAME 3 PREDICTION: PHX 116, MIL 109 (PHOENIX SUNS +4.5)
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