The Milwaukee Bucks travel back to Fiserv Forum for a chance to clinch their first championship in 50 years. It’s time to continue our NBA Finals odds series and make a Suns-Bucks Game 6 prediction and pick.
The Bucks hold an overall record of 15-7 in the postseason and are 13-9 against the spread. Milwaukee is 9-1 on its home floor in the playoffs and a perfect 2-0 at Fiserv Forum in the Finals.
The Suns stand at 14-7 overall and 13-8 against the spread in the postseason. Phoenix is 6-4 on the road in the playoffs so far.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Suns-Bucks Game 6 odds.
NBA Finals Odds: Suns-Bucks Game 6 Odds
Phoenix Suns +5 (-111)
Milwaukee Bucks -5 (-109)
Over 222 Points (-110)
Under 222 Points (-110)
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Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
The Suns are facing serious adversity this postseason for the first time since the first round against the Los Angeles Lakers. This is the first deficit they've faced since going down 2-1 to LeBron James and company and facing Game 4 on the road.
We all know how the Suns handled that situation, and it's not unthinkable that they can replicate the results here. The key to stealing this game will be returning to the play that got them here: Hard-nosed defense, sharing the ball, and relying on the depth of their roster to all contribute.
In Game 5, the Suns couldn't get any stops (the Bucks shot over 57% on the road) and largely relied on Devin Booker to hit difficult shots in the half court. While Booker was highly successful, it's not the most sustainable source of offense. Phoenix only got up 19 3-pointers in the loss and had 23 assists despite shooting extremely well from the field.
The Suns' assist rate ranked in the top 10 in the regular season and has generally been good in these playoffs, but it has dipped in a big way in these NBA Finals. Phoenix should look to get the ball moving better in Game 6. This will also take some pressure off Booker by getting his teammates quality opportunities to score and prevent him from being the sole source of buckets.
Getting more defensive stops would help as well. The Bucks shot the lights out in Game 5, though that wasn't all on the Suns' defense. Phoenix is hoping Milwaukee's hot shooting will regress a bit.
Ultimately, Chris Paul needs to regain control of the series and control the pace of the game. He hasn't been as effective of late. If he can't do it, his Finals record will go to 0-1.
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
Milwaukee has totally shifted momentum its way after not only winning three straight games, but becoming the first team to steal a game on the road in the Finals.
The narrative has completely swung since the Bucks lost the first two games. The Suns were a -400 favorite to win the championship, and people were already penciling in Chris Paul's name on that Finals MVP trophy. Most of this swing is due to Milwaukee's star power shining brightest when it matters most.
On the biggest stage of the season, every team needs stars to put them over the top. Right now, the Bucks' big names have showed up in a big way, with CP3 dropping off the pace a bit.
The first two games of the series the Bucks almost entirely relied on Giannis, and we saw how that worked out. Since then, the two men the Bucks paid for exactly this kind of moment have proven their worth.
Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton have stepped up to make the Bucks' Big Three nearly unstoppable. In the last three games, Middleton averaged 29.0 points on 47.1% shooting. In the same span, Holiday shot 44.4% and averaged 20.3 points, and that's despite a 4-of-20 shooting night in Game 4.
Add that to Giannis' numbers, and the Bucks' trio averaged just over 82 points a game in those contests. Meanwhile, as mentioned, the Suns have been a one-man show of late.
The only man to score over 21 points in a Suns uniform over the last three games is Devin Booker. Chris Paul's disappearance has been particularly jarring for Phoenix futures bettors.
Holiday has dug in against The Point God, forcing him to turn the ball over 18 times in the series while only recording one game with double-digit assists. The 18 TOs are more than Paul has had in all but one five-game stretch in the entire regular and postseason this year.
Without Paul looking extremely sharp, it's unlikely the Suns can pull out a win in an arena the Bucks have looked unbeatable in.
Final Suns-Bucks Game 6 Prediction & Pick
The series has come down to the performance of the other players around Giannis and Booker. Giannis proved he couldn't do it by himself in Games 1 and 2, and Booker showed the same in Games 4 and 5. Now, the Suns walk back into a hostile arena where Middleton and Holiday have performed better all postseason. Barring otherworldly performances from both Paul and Booker, as well as Milwaukee's stars going cold in the same game, I don't see how the Suns bounce back. I'll back the Bucks to cover the spread and celebrate the title in their home city.
FINAL SUNS-BUCKS GAME 6 PREDICTION: MIL 114, PHX 106 (MILWAUKEE BUCKS -5)
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