The Milwaukee Bucks are projected to win the Eastern Conference next season based on ESPN's real plus-minus projections.
Surprisingly, the real plus-minus projections have the Boston Celtics ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers. Most people believe the Sixers, after signing All-Star big man Al Horford and acquiring combo guard Josh Richardson, are the second-best team in the East since the Celtics lost Kyrie Irving and Horford.
Milwaukee Bucks
Average wins: 50.7
Playoffs: >99%Given that multiyear RPM encompasses the past three seasons, it includes the period when the Bucks were a fringe playoff team under Jason Kidd, before making the leap to championship contenders in Mike Budenholzer's first season at the helm. Milwaukee's projection also is hampered by newcomers Kyle Korver, Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews all rating worse than minus-2.0 per 100 possessions. Nonetheless, the Bucks easily surpass the rest of the East field.
Boston Celtics
Average wins: 47.2
Playoffs: 94%The Celtics are one of four teams projected by RPM to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating, something they quietly pulled off last season despite underperforming expectations. With the departures of Aron Baynes and Al Horford, defense could be the greater challenge, but Boston has strong defenders on the perimeter, led by NBA All-Defensive first-team pick Marcus Smart.
Philadelphia 76ers
Average wins: 46.8
Playoffs: 95%As compared to FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projections, 27 of the 30 teams are within four wins of those marks here. And then there's the Sixers, projected for 58 wins by CARMELO — tied for most in the league — and only 46 by our RPM-based model. What explains the discrepancy given similar inputs?
First, CARMELO doesn't attempt to project games played, so Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons (projected for 66 apiece) have less value here. That seems fair in the case of Embiid, who has averaged 63.5 games over the past two seasons, but not Simmons, who has missed only four games over the past two after his entire 2016-17 campaign was lost to injury. Related, CARMELO gives playing time to only 11 Philadelphia players and none at all to reserves Furkan Korkmaz and Kyle O'Quinn, both a part of these projections. Lastly, as noted, players changing teams works against their projections, and Philadelphia had relatively high turnover. Just 60% of Philadelphia's projected minutes are played by returning players. Add it up and the two similar systems reach different conclusions about the Sixers.
The Bucks had the best record in the NBA last season. The reigning MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, figures to be even better next season.
Milwaukee lost Malcolm Brogdon to the Indiana Pacers in free agency, but did re-sign Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez and George Hill. The Bucks also signed sharpshooter Kyle Korver and center Robin Lopez.
The Celtics are replacing Irving with three-time All-Star Kemba Walker. Boston is hoping Walker will mesh with head coach Brad Stevens better than Irving did.
The Sixers are going to miss Jimmy Butler and JJ Redick, but the acquisitions of Horford and Richardson help keep Philly in the title discussion.
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