The Philadelphia 76ers travel to the Mile High City tonight to take on the Denver Nuggets. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Sixers-Nuggets prediction and pick.
The Sixers currently hold a record of 32-14 overall and 26-17-3 against the spread. Philadelphia is coming off a loss to the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Nuggets stand at 28-18 but are only 22-24 against the spread. Denver is coming off a blowout win over the Atlanta Hawks.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Sixers-Nuggets odds.
NBA Odds: Sixers vs. Nuggets Odds
Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 (-103)
Denver Nuggets -4.5 (-117)
Over 221 Points (-110)
Under 221 Points (-110)
Why The Sixers Could Cover The Spread
The Sixers' strongest performances have come on their home floor, but their road record is still significantly better than last year. On the road, the Sixers are exactly break even against the spread with a record of 10-10-3.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, have struggled to cover at home. Denver is only 9-13 ATS in Ball Arena, as opposed to 13-11 ATS on the road.
The Sixers are in a good position to worsen that spread record. Even though they are coming off a loss, Philly has looked impressive of late. They are 8-2 in their last ten, with the two losses coming to serious Finals contenders in the Bucks and the Clippers.
Philadelphia has been racking up the wins thanks to their effort on the defensive end. The only team that has topped 110 points in the last five games against the Nuggets has been the Clippers.
The Sixers hold opponents to the fourth lowest field goal percentage in the league, the eighth-lowest three-point percentage, and force the fifth-most turnovers.
Against a Nuggets team that can score the ball with the best of them, Philly will need to win this one on the backs of their defense tonight. The Sixers will look to avoid a shootout at all costs.
Offensively, Philly will badly miss Joel Embiid tonight. Denver allows 45.1 points per game in the paint, the seventh-highest figure in the NBA. Embiid would be primed for a field day against a soft Nuggets interior.
Instead, it'll be up to Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris to carry the offensive load. Harris has been on a scoring tear of late, averaging 24.0 points on 56.6% shooting from the field.
Philadelphia needs to pound the ball in the paint and hit their mid-range jumpers tonight. Harris and Simmons score nearly exclusively in those areas, and if they can combine for around 45 points there's a good chance the Sixers pull the upset here.
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
Denver is 4-1 in their last five home games, with their most impressive win coming against the Atlanta Hawks.
The Nuggets are sneakily one of the NBA teams with the most roster depth in the league, and this was on full display against Trae Young and company two nights ago.
Denver had six guys hit double-digits and were led in scoring by a bench player, JaMychal Green. When you don't even need your MVP candidate to score 20 to blow-out a playoff quality team, teams get put on notice.
The Nuggets' strongest quality is their offensive firepower, and they've shown they are more than capable of handling elite defensive teams.
Against squads that allow less than 110 points per game, Denver is 7-4 overall. This includes a win over the Sixers earlier this year.
The Nuggets can overwhelm you with depth, but their focal point is Nikola Jokic. The current favorite to win MVP, Jokic is a walking triple-double, doing whatever the Nuggets need to get the win. He can get teammates going, score the ball himself from all three levels, and is one of the clutchest players in the league right now.
Without Embiid to guard the paint, the Sixers will struggle size-wise. Assuming Dwight Howard can avoid his third straight ejection, he should be the Joker's primary defender. This will be a key battle the Nuggets need to win to cover tonight.
On defense, the Nuggets get an opponent that hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. The Sixers have failed to score 110 points in their last five matchups, and struggle from deep.
As long as Denver can prevent both Sixers stars from going off, they should have enough depth to overwhelm a road-weary Sixers squad.
Final Sixers-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
This game comes down to the Sixers' defensive strength vs. the Nuggets' ability to score in bunches. On their home floor, I'll back the Nuggets offense to put up enough points to get the job done. Denver just has too many players that are capable of scoring 20+, and I can't see Philadelphia stopping them all. If Denver gets hot from three, or Philly goes through a cold stretch, Denver should pull away quickly. I'll take Jokic and company to win this one by 8-12 points tonight.
FINAL SIXERS-LAKERS PREDICTION & PICK: DENVER NUGGETS -4.5
Follow Us
Subscribe