The Portland Trail Blazers face off against the Los Angeles Lakers for the second time this season at Staples Center. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Blazers-Lakers prediction and pick.
The Blazers currently hold an overall record of 18-13 and are 17-14 against the spread. Portland is coming off a close loss to the Denver Nuggets.
The Lakers stand at 22-11 but are only 14-19 against the spread. Los Angeles is on a four game losing streak, with the last loss coming in blowout fashion to the Utah Jazz.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Blazers-Lakers odds.
NBA Odds: Blazers vs. Lakers Odds
Portland Trail Blazers +5 (-112)
Los Angeles Lakers -5 (-108)
Over 221.5 Points (-112)
Under 221.5 Points (-108)
Why The Blazers Could Cover The Spread
While both these teams enter this matchup on losing streaks, the Lakers are in far poorer form than the Blazers.
In their last 10 games, the Lakers are a miserable 2-8 against the spread. On the other hand, the Blazers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10.
The Lakers have struggled in pretty much every category since Anthony Davis' injury. The two that stand out are defending the 3-point line and converting their own 3-point shots.
Before the Davis injury, the Lakers were the second-best team at defending the 3-point line. They have dropped to seventh in opponent 3-point percentage.
Los Angeles has been torched from deep. In the last five games, three of the Lakers' opponents shot better than 45% from beyond the arc.
Against a Blazers team that makes the second-most 3-pointers in the league per game, this could be disastrous for L.A.
Offensively, the Lakers aren't getting much of anything out of anyone not named LeBron James. Los Angeles failed to break 100 points in three of its last four contests. Much of this is due to the fact that they are ice cold from deep.
In their last four games, the Lakers combined to shoot 29% from deep. No matter how good defensively a team is, they're going to struggle at that rate.
The Blazers' 3-point defense has been mediocre all year, but at this rate, it doesn't have to be great for Portland to pull off an upset.
As long as Portland amps up the pace, the Lakers won't be able to hang with them in a shootout.
Why The Lakers Could Cover The Spread
The Lakers are looking forward to much-needed reinforcements with Dennis Schroder probable to play.
Schroder missed four games due to the league's COVID-19 protocols, and it was reflected in L.A.'s offensive output.
As the Lakers' third-leading scorer and second best ball handler, Schroder is a key piece to this Lakers offense. Assuming he plays, a huge weight will be taken off LeBron James' back.
After facing the best defense in the league in Utah, seeing this Blazers defense has to be a relief for the Lakers. Their only tolerable offensive game was against the Wizards over this stretch, a team that allows the second-most points in the league. Thankfully for the Lakers, the Blazers aren't much better, allowing the sixth-most points.
Since Jusuf Nurkic's injury, Portland has been playing with a very small lineup with little rim protection. Davis will be sorely missed, but LeBron and Schroder should still find their share of easy buckets at the hoop.
Defensively, L.A. needs to force Lillard and company to put the ball on the floor and go to the rim. The Blazers get 42% of their points from beyond the arc, the second-highest in the league.
While the Blazers shoot the ball well, they struggle to convert inside the 3-point line. Portland is seventh in the league in 3-point percentage but just 26th in the league in field goal percentage.
Another important point for the Lakers will be keeping the Blazers off the free-throw line.
Portland is bottom-tier in free-throw attempts (21st) but fifth in percentage. As long as L.A. keeps them off the charity stripe and 3-point line, this Portland offense can be slowed.
Final Blazers-Lakers Prediction & Pick
Even with Schroder's return, the Lakers will still struggle offensively as he shakes off the rust from a long absence. Barring a superhuman performance from LeBron, the Blazers should keep this game close. Los Angeles has shown the inability to finish teams off and close strong recently, and against a sharpshooting team like Portland, this is deadly. Even if the Blazers go down early, their 3-point prowess should keep them in the game. I'll take Portland with the points here, and it might even be worth it to put a little on the Blazers moneyline.
FINAL PICK: POR +5
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