Two of the hottest teams in the NBA get a chance to face off in primetime on Valentine's Day, as the Dallas Mavericks host the Portland Trail Blazers on ESPN.
The Blazers are 15-10 and have won their last three games, including a 118-114 win over the Sixers, who currently have the 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.
After starting the season off slow, the 13-14 Mavericks have won their last four games, with star guard Luka Doncic scoring a career-high 46 points in the latest win against the New Orleans Pelicans.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Blazers-Mavericks odds.
NBA Odds: Blazers-Mavericks Odds
Dallas Mavericks -5 (-111)
Portland Trail Blazers +5 (-109)
Over 235.5 Points (-110)
Under 235.5 Points (-110)
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Ever since he joined the Mavericks in the 2018-19 season, Kristaps Porzingis has not gotten into a great rhythm with Dallas, partially due to injury troubles.
Ever since coming back in February, Porzingis has looked as dominant as he did in the bubble, averaging 23.4 points per game and 8.5 rebounds per game, while shooting 48.9 from the field in the month of February.
The pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop powers of Porzingis and Luka Doncic make them one of the dynamic offensive duos in the NBA, and as Iztok Franko wrote for Mavs Moneyball, the Mavericks may be able to exploit the Blazers' lack of depth at the center position.
“Because of the injuries, Enes Kanter is the only real serviceable big man Portland has left. Kanter is a poor defender, especially in the pick and roll and the Mavericks need to attack him. Dallas was very methodical in exposing weaknesses against the Pelicans, and they need to repeat that against the Trail Blazers.”
If Porzingis can continue to flourish against a weak Blazers defense, the Mavericks should have no issue winning the game and covering the spread.
Why The Blazers Could Cover The Spread
C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic have not played in nearly a month, and Zach Collins has yet to appear in a game this season.
Despite these injury woes, the Blazers just keep winning, working their way up to the 5 seed in a very competitive Western Conference.
A few role players have stepped up for the Blazers, particularly third-year man Gary Trent Jr. picking up most of the scoring slack with McCollum out.
Trent Jr. was hot in the bubble and has stayed hot this season, shooting 44.2 percent from three, which is a mark that's 10th best in the league among those who have shot at least 100 3s.
Future Hall-of-Famer Carmelo Anthony has been a good scorer off the bench for the Blazers, but has been especially great late in games, pouring in 11 straight fourth-quarter points in the win against Orlando before racking up 17 fourth-quarter points against Philadelphia to help evaporate a six-point Sixers lead.
With Trent Jr. and Anthony picking up the scoring, Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. serving a quality defenders at the forward spot, and Damian Lillard continuing to dominate at the point guard spot, the Blazers have a formidable core who compete with the NBA's best despite missing three key pieces.
Final Blazers-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
Before even getting into the spread, the Over feels like a good play for the game tonight, as for all the offensive talent these teams have, they rank 27th and 28th in the league in defensive efficiency.
Another reason why the Over is a safe bet for this game is that both teams will chuck it from deep, as the Blazers shoot 41.9 threes per game and the Mavericks shoot 37.1 threes per game, with those marks ranking in the top-10 in the league.
With all those threes, this has the potential to be a game with a lot of small ball, which favors the Blazers and allows them to hide their lack of depth at the center position.
With how good Porzingis has been this month and after the elite flashes Luka showed in his 46-point performance against the Pelicans, it's hard to pick against that dominant duo.
But there is value in the Blazers against the spread because of how their role players have stepped up. Bank on Carmelo Anthony dominating in the second unit, giving Portland a huge advantage when the stars of this game are off the floor.
And if this game is close towards the end, it's hard to bet against Dame Time, as Lillard has become one of the most clutch point guards in the NBA over the last few seasons.
I would sprinkle the Blazers moneyline tonight (great value at +175). For a more conservative approach, take Portland against the spread and the over on points.
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