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The Memphis Grizzlies (24-13) visit the Orlando Magic (14-24) on Thursday night. Action tips off at 7:10 ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Grizzlies-Magic prediction and pick.
Memphis has won four consecutive games to bump them up to second place in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies have covered 54% of their games while 56% of their matchups have gone under the projected point total. Orlando has lost three of their last four games, dropping them to 13th place in the Eastern Conference. The Magic have covered 54% of their games while 53% of their matchups have gone over. This will be the first of two meetings between the teams this season. Last year, Memphis took both games by 15+ points.
Here are the Grizzlies-Magic NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Grizzlies-Magic Odds
Memphis Grizzlies: -6.5 (-110)
Orlando Magic: +6.5 (-110)
Over: 230 (-110)
Under: 230 (-110)
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Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
Memphis enters tonight’s game fresh off a 24-point dismantling of Charlotte last night. After some slight growing pains following the return of Desmond Bane, the Grizzlies appear to be firing on all cylinders and have shot back up atop the Western Conference. Memphis is one of the most well-rounded teams in the NBA as they rank in the top 10 in offense, defense, and rebounding. While the Magic have been frisky, the Grizzlies have a great chance to cover tonight thanks to their potent starting lineup.
Although they’ve played just six games together, the starting five of Morant, Brooks, Bane, Jackson Jr., and Adams has already proven to be one of the most potent lineups in the league. In 134 possessions together, the five-man grouping has a +23.9 point differential – 11th out of all lineups with at least 100 possessions played together. After Jackson Jr. and then Bane both went down with injuries, Memphis has largely treaded water while remaining near the top of the Western Conference. With their full lineup back, the Grizzlies are well-positioned to make a run at the number-one seed. They’re in a similarly strong position to cover tonight but will need a big night from their guards against Orlando’s solid defense (16th in points allowed).
With Desmond Bane still getting his footing after extended time off, point guard Ja Morant has remained the catalyst for the Memphis offense. Over their last five games, Morant has averaged 28.6 points and 8.8 assists while shooting 50% from the floor. Morant does an excellent job at getting to the line (8.4 FTA per game) and will have the added advantage of resting during the blowout win last night. He has a solid matchup tonight against an Orlando defense that just gave up 33 points to Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Perhaps the biggest reason Memphis can cover tonight is their stout defense. The Grizzlies rank seventh in points allowed as they give up just 111 PPG. Forward Jaren Jackson Jr. is among the league’s top shot-blockers, averaging 3.1 BPG. The Magic struggle offensively (27th in scoring) and are especially prone to turning the ball over (fifth in turnovers per game).
Why The Magic Could Cover The Spread
While the Magic find themselves near the bottom of the standings, they could prove to be a savvy pick to cover tonight thanks to their stellar defense and rebounding numbers. Orlando allows 114 points per game (16th) and averages a +1.6 rebound differential (ninth). They’ve been especially strong at defending the three as they hold opponents to just 34.2% shooting from deep (fifth). That will come in handy against a Memphis team that ranks in the top 10 in both scoring and rebounding, but whether or not Orlando covers tonight will come down to their offense.
Orlando has struggled offensively this season as they average just 110.2 points per game (27th). That being said, they’ve shown a lot of improvement on that end over the last few weeks. Across their last seven games, the Magic have upped their scoring to nearly 116 PPG and are fresh off a 126-point outburst against the Thunder.
The Magic are led by their pair of young forwards Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Banchero (21 PPG) and Wagner (19.9 PPG) have been stellar offensive options all season long. While Wagner is more efficient (48% from the floor, 34% from three), Banchero is a stronger passer. He leads the team in assists with 4.0 APG. Wagner is coming off a suspension, whereas Banchero just recorded one of the best games of his career. In the win over OKC, he recorded 25 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assist.
Final Grizzlies-Magic Prediction & Pick
With both teams playing the second night of a back-to-back, I like the Magic to keep things close.
Final Grizzlies-Magic Prediction & Pick: Orlando Magic +6.5 (-110)
How To Watch Grizzlies vs. Magic
TV: Bally Southeast & Florida
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT