A rematch of the 2020 NBA Finals matchup between the Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers is set to commence on Saturday night at Staples Center. However, Lakers star LeBron James won't have a complete cast around him as his running mate in Anthony Davis remains to be out due to his Achilles injury.
Luckily for his team, the Heat are settling for a 12-17 record for the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference. Erik Spoelstra's squad is 10-18-1 against the spread and is currently accounting for a 35.7 percent chance of covering the spread.
Meanwhile, the Purple and Gold are currently holding a 22-8 record for the second spot in the Western Conference. They are 14-16 against the spread with a 46.7 percent chance of covering the betting odds.
Here's how the sportsbooks are heading to Saturday's game with the Heat-Lakers odds:
NBA Odds: Heat-Lakers Odds
Heat +3.5 (-112)
Lakers -3.5 (-108)
Over 208 PTS (-110)
Under 208 PTS (-110)
Why the Heat can cover the spread
Miami is not having the best of starts in the 2020-21 season as shown by their dismal record through the first 29 games of the season. However, their latest win over the Sacramento Kings on Thursday night proved that they are capable of turning things around sooner than later.
Jimmy Butler notched 13 points, 10 rebounds, and 13 assists for the Heat while forward Bam Adebayo also registered a triple-double output of 16 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists. Those numbers may not exactly be eye-popping but it implies that those two players were effectuating the game in more ways than one.
The contributions from the two players on the field definitely helped the Heat secure a 118-110 victory against the Kings to snap a four-game losing skid. However, on Saturday night, Miami's success to cover the spread will primarily hinge on the extended absence of Anthony Davis.
Without him on the floor, fans can expect Adebayo to step up for his team, especially when matched up against slower players in Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell. Apart from his 56.9 percent efficiency from the field, the Kentucky alum is also capable of stretching the floor as he currently holds a 40.0 percent shooting from beyond the arc.
LeBron James and the Lakers may be the best defensive team in the league but they are definitely a weaker unit, especially without the contributions of Davis on both ends of the floor. In fact, the team's most recent 109-98 loss against the Brooklyn Nets was a testament to their inability to contain opposing offenses without Davis around. The Heat will certainly be motivated to capitalize on the absence of the seven-time All-Star in a bid to escape with a victory in Los Angeles.
Why the Lakers can cover the spread
Due to Davis' multiple absences throughout the season, head coach Frank Vogel and his squad have already grown accustomed to playing in games without their star big man at the helm. In fact, they are currently holding a 5-2 win-loss record without Davis on their corner. The Lakers are expected to continue their good showing and will look to add another victory to their tally when they host the Heat on Saturday.
Luckily for the Purple and Gold, Miami hasn't looked like the same squad that they surprisingly faced in the 2020 NBA Finals due to their opponents' slow start this season. The Heat is currently ranked 27th in the league for the number of points scored per game with only an average of 107.2 as opposed to the Lakers' tally of 112.4, which accounts for the 17th spot.
In addition, the Lakers are also a defensive juggernaut as they are currently listed in the top five of opponents' field goal percentage, opponents' 3-point percentage, points allowed, and 3-points allowed all while topping the league in defensive rating. They will still aim to live up to their billing as a top defensive team if only their other players on the roster can step up on both ends of the floor.
The Lakers may possibly give up some easy looks to the Heat in the paint, especially without the stifling presence of Davis. However, they remain to be the better team even without their star big man on the floor, considering that Erik Spoelstra's squad doesn't have the same level of confidence that they used to play with when the two teams last met in the 2020 NBA Finals.
Final Heat-Lakers Prediction & Pick
Even without Anthony Davis, the Lakers remain to be a pretty dangerous team and will definitely be motivated to come back on their feet, especially after absorbing a disappointing loss against another title contender in the Nets. I'm projecting that Saturday night's encounter will be a low-scoring affair with LeBron James and his team coming out on top with a W.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION & PICK FOR HEAT-LAKERS: LAL 102, MIA 96 (LAL -3.5)
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