The Utah Jazz travel to Philly Thursday to take on the Philadelphia 76ers in a battle of the two top conference seeds. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Jazz-Sixers prediction and pick.
The Jazz are 27-8 straight up and 25-9-1 against the spread. Utah is coming off a loss to the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Sixers have the best record in the Eastern Conference at 23-12 and are 18-15-2 against the spread. Philadelphia is coming off a blowout win over the Indiana Pacers.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Jazz-Sixers odds.
NBA Odds: Jazz-Sixers Odds
Utah Jazz -3.5 (-110)
Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 (-110)
Over 230 Points (-110)
Under 230 Points (-110)
Why The Sixers Could Cover The Spread
The Jazz are in the midst of their second worst stretch of the season, and the Sixers have the weapons to continue their misery.
Utah has lost two of their last three, and the Heat and Pelicans both got their wins in the same way: Excellent rebounding and efficient shot selection.
Both Miami and New Orleans shot less three-point shots than they average per game, but hit the ones they did take at a very efficient rate. The Heat finished with a 46.7% mark from deep while the Pels shot 63.7% on only 11 three's.
Additionally, both teams blew past their rebounding numbers and did a good job limiting Rudy Gobert and company from easy stick-backs.
In both these categories, the Sixers are above average. Philadelphia shoots the third lowest three-pointers per game, but are in the top half of the league in three-point percentage.
The Sixers average 45.7 rebounds a game, seventh most in the league. They also hold their own on the offensive glass, grabbing 10.2 per game.
Jimmy Butler and Zion Williamson had their way against Utah in the painted area, combining for 59 points without a single three-pointer made between them .
Tonight it might be Joel Embiid's turn. The MVP candidate gets about 60% of his points from the painted area, and his matchup will be key tonight against Rudy Gobert.
If Embiid can prevent Gobert from controlling the paint and keep him occupied defensively, there's a good chance the Sixers can repeat the feat accomplished by Miami and New Orleans recently.
Why The Jazz Could Cover The Spread
The recent Utah struggles are due to their defensive performance.
After their absolute shutdown of the Los Angeles Lakers, Utah opponents have run rampant on the offensive end.
In all three of their most recent matchups, the Jazz opponent has scored over their average by a significant margin.
Utah could catch a break tonight with the potential absence of Tobias Harris, the Sixers second leading scorer. Harris is currently questionable with a knee injury.
Even if Tobias Harris does play, it's unlikely this elite Jazz defense produces four poor performances in a row. Against a Sixers offense that has been streaky, Utah could be primed to get back on track.
Offensively, the Jazz are already in sync. They just need to continue the roll.
Utah has scored 120+ points in four of their last eight games, including a 134 point outburst against the Sixers just two weeks ago.
The Jazz launched 45 three-pointers in that game and connected on 40% of them. They should shoot just as many tonight against a Sixers perimeter defense that has been mediocre.
The three-point battle is a must win for Utah tonight. The Jazz lead the league in three-point percentage and get a whopping 43.7% of their points from beyond the arc. Philly, on the other hand, only gets 28.1% of their points from three.
For Utah to win this one, the three-point figures will need to be lopsided, and they should be. Look for Utah to double up the Sixers once again in three-point makes.
Final Jazz-Sixers Prediction & Pick
Utah has shown it struggles with size and physicality. In nearly all of their losses, they have been burned by bruisers (Butler, Williamson, Randle, Jokic). Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are more than capable of doing the same tonight. Combine that with the Sixers excellent home record (12-6 ATS at home) and the upper hand belongs to Philly here. I'll gladly take the points for the Sixers and even lay a small sum on the Sixers moneyline.
FINAL PICK: PHI +3.5
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