The Utah Jazz travel to the Bay to take on the Golden State Warriors for the third time this season. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Jazz-Warriors prediction and pick.
The Jazz hold a record of 50-18 overall and 39-28-1 against the spread. Utah is coming off a victory over the Houston Rockets.
The Warriors stand at 35-33 overall and 33-35 against the spread. The Dubs are coming off a blowout victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Jazz-Warriors odds.
NBA Odds: Jazz-Warriors Odds
Utah Jazz -2 (-110)
Golden State Warriors +2 (-110)
Over 225.5 Points (-110)
Under 225.5 Points (-110)
Why The Jazz Could Cover The Spread
The Jazz are easily one of the hottest teams in the league at the moment, even without their starting backcourt.
Utah has won five straight and covered in three of the last five matchups. In the last two weeks, the Jazz have only lost one game, and that was to the Phoenix Suns.
Considering Utah's recent success, this line seems surprisingly low. Even against a Nuggets team that came to Utah red hot, the Jazz were still 4.5-point favorites, higher than the spread they have for Monday.
This might come in part due to the outcome of the last matchup between these two teams. The Warriors handily beat a fully healthy Jazz team in San Francisco, winning by 12 points.
Upon looking at the box score of the matchup, it seems to be more of an anomaly win than anything. Here's a look at some stats that are very unlikely to sting the Jazz twice in their Warriors matchups.
Bojan Bogdanovic shot 1-of-7 from 3 in their last matchup. Bogdanovic has shot seven-plus triples 28 times this season. In only four of those occurrences did he fail to hit at least two attempts. Add in the fact that Bogey is on fire right now, shooting 54.1% from 3 in his last five games, and it would be a shock to see him be a non-factor yet again.
Last time Andrew Wiggins played the Jazz, he made 12-of-16 of his field goal attempts and 3-of-5 of his 3-pointers. Wiggins has shot 75% from the floor exactly twice all season.
Jordan Poole has hit more than half his 3-pointers in just four games all season, and one of those came in the Warriors' upset win in which he hit 3-of-5 and scored 18 points.
Essentially, the Warriors got the perfect storm to pull off the shocking victory, and the odds it happens again, even against a hobbled Jazz squad, are not in their favor.
Expect a Jazz defense that holds opponents to the third-fewest points per game and the second-lowest field goal and 3-point percentages in the NBA to regain their footing in this one.
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
Golden State has won and covered in four of the last five matchups. As they work to solidify their postseason standing, the Warriors have been excelling at both ends of late.
Granted, the Dubs haven't played a worthy opponent in a hot second, but they've certainly been taking care of business against the cellar dwellers in the West.
Curry and company dominated the Thunder on back-to-back nights, shooting them out of the building while clamping their hapless opponent for two straight games.
This Warriors defense has now held opponents below their scoring average for five straight games, while topping their own average in four out of six games.
Utah's defense is elite, but Golden State isn't too far behind. The Dubs have held opponents to the third-lowest field goal percentage in the NBA thanks to some tenacious defensive efforts by Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins. They've been steadily moving up the charts in their perimeter stats and now hold opponents to the eighth-lowest percentage from deep.
Guarding the perimeter will be key for the Warriors. The Jazz shoot the third-highest percentage from 3 in the league and get a huge percentage of their points from deep. If they can limit the bleeding from the 3-point line, the Dubs have a great shot at pulling a second straight upset.
On offense, the Warriors will turn to Curry yet again. The best shooter in NBA history is averaging a mind-blowing 38.2 points per game in his last five matchups while shooting 44.9% from 3-land.
Really, the best defense against Curry is praying the man has an off night. If Curry comes out hot, it is extremely difficult to topple a highly motivated Warriors team with their sights set on the postseason.
Final Jazz-Warriors Prediction & Pick
Both teams are hot right now, and I have to back the team with the biggest game-changer on the floor. At this point, Steph has made it nearly impossible to bet against him. The Warriors got a win against the Jazz already with Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley healthy thanks to nearly every single one of their role players getting hot, and that won't happen in this one. The thing is, the Warriors don't need it to win. Curry should still be cooking, and as long as Wiggins and Green play their role on the defensive end, I can't see Utah getting enough points to overwhelm a hungry Dubs squad. Give me Golden State with the points in a close one.
FINAL PICK/PREDICTION: GSW 116, UTA 112 (WARRIORS +2)
Follow Us
Subscribe