The Dallas Mavericks visit the Mile High City on Thursday night to face the Denver Nuggets for the first time this season.  It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Mavericks-Nuggets prediction and pick.

The Mavericks currently hold an overall record of 3-4, and they are also 3-4 against the spread. Dallas is coming off a win over the Houston Rockets.

The Nuggets stand at 3-4 overall, but they are 2-5 against the spread. Denver most recently beat the Minnesota Timberwolves while failing to cover the spread.

Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Mavericks-Nuggets odds.

NBA Odds: Mavericks-Nuggets Odds

Dallas Mavericks +2.5 (-103)

Denver Nuggets -2.5 (-117)

Over 223 Points (-110)

Under 223 Points (-110)

Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread

Luka Doncic, Mavs
ClutchPoints

The Mavericks have had an up and down season so far.

They were blown out by the Los Angeles Lakers, and then proceeded to blow out the Los Angeles Clippers. They lost to the Charlotte Hornets, only to beat the Miami Heat right after. It's been difficult to get a temperature gauge on this mercurial team.

Even Luka Doncic, who started the season as the MVP favorite, has not been consistent. To start the 2020-21 campaign, the Slovenian wonder was a woeful 2-21 from three-point range.

While Doncic has not found his stroke from deep yet, he is coming off an excellent game against the Rockets: A triple-double of 33 points, 16 rebounds, and 11 assists.

Doncic is the best player on either team, and without Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavs will lean on him heavily tonight.

Relying on Doncic is not a new occurrence in Dallas, but counting on their defense to win games is. Surprisingly, the Mavs have allowed the least points, field goals, and seventh least three-pointers in the league to start the season.

For a team that set records for offensive efficiency last year, the Mavs could just shoot teams out of the water. But so far in 2020-21, the defense has been the key to their wins. In seven games, the Mavs have held their opponents to 100 points or less three times.

If Doncic can produce a touch of Luka magic and the Mavs contain Jokic down low, Dallas can win this game straight up as underdogs.

Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread

Nuggets, Michael Porter
ClutchPoints

Of the two teams, the Nuggets have been more consistent than the Mavericks. The problem is that Denver has been consistently average.

In almost every statistic, Denver is middle tier. Nuggets fans are still waiting for the team that made the Western Conference Finals last year to kick it in to gear.

The bright spot for the Nuggets has been Nikola Jokic. The Joker is averaging a triple-double through the first seven games of the season.

His marks of 24.1 points and 11.9 assists would be career highs. Apparently, the multi-faceted center did not need to play himself in to shape this year.

Against a Mavs team without Porzingis, Jokic should be set to dominate down low. Expect him to have another great game against Dallas' frontcourt.

The Nuggets' main goal should be to neutralize Doncic and turn this game into a shootout. Few teams can keep up with the Nuggets in Denver when that happens.

Working in Dallas' favor is that Doncic has not had success in Ball Arena, formerly known as Pepsi Center.

Doncic has played three games in Denver and is averaging less than 20 points in them. He has shot only 34% from the field on the Nuggets' home floor.

If Doncic doesn't have a big game, it'll be tough for the Mavs to keep this close. 2.5 points probably won't be enough for a Porzingis-less Mavericks squad.

Final Mavericks-Nuggets Prediction & Pick

While the Nuggets have been more consistent in the young season, the Mavericks have shown flashes of greatness that I have yet to see from Denver. I predict Luka breaks his Denver slump and leads the Mavericks to victory for their second straight win in a close game.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: DAL 114, DEN 110