The Dallas Mavericks travel to Philly Thursday to take on the Philadelphia 76ers. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Mavericks-Sixers prediction and pick.
The Mavericks are 15-15 straight up and 13-17 against the spread. Dallas is coming off an electric victory over the Boston Celtics thanks to a Luka Doncic game-winner.
The Sixers have the best record in the Eastern Conference at 21-11 and are 16-14-2 against the spread. In Philadelphia's most recent game, they beat the Raptors in Tampa.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Mavericks-Sixers odds.
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Sixers Odds
Dallas Mavericks +5 (-113)
Philadelphia 76ers -5 (-107)
Over 229 Points (-105)
Under 229 Points (-115)
Why The Sixers Could Cover The Spread
The Mavericks are expected to be without star big man Kristaps Porzingis for their third straight game. This could be an important loss on both ends for Dallas.
Porzingis is the Mavs' second-leading rebounder and primary big-man defender. Dallas struggles on the defensive glass, ranking 20th in defensive rebound percentage.
Without Porzingis, this number will get even worse. Against Joel Embiid and Dwight Howard (both top-30 in offensive boards per game), this could be deadly. And don't forget Ben Simmons, who gets the second-most offensive boards in the league at the guard position.
Expect the Sixers to pound the ball inside to Embiid against a team that hasn't rebounded well and struggles to defend without fouling.
The Mavericks give opponents 23.9 free-throw attempts in the league, sixth-most in the NBA. Embiid currently has the most free-throw attempts of any player. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a free-throw parade for the Sixers big man tonight.
The Sixers don't need to shoot the lights out to win this one. Philadelphia only scores 27.7% of their points from beyond the arc, but the club still has the best record in the East.
Keep this game slow, run the offense through Embiid, and the Sixers should win this one comfortably.
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
The Mavericks enter this game amid their hottest stretch of the season.
Dallas has won six of its last seven games, capped by a Luka Doncic game-winner in the last matchup to send the Celtics home with a devastating loss. It gave them a win and a cover.
The Slovenian superstar has been excellent over the Mavericks' winning stretch, averaging 34.0 points on 51.9% shooting and dishing 8.6 assists per game.
More importantly for Dallas, their shooters have finally found their groove.
The Mavericks hit the 3-pointer at the seventh-lowest rate in the NBA, clocking in at 35.2% from deep. Dallas has topped that number in five of the last seven games, including a shooting clinic against the Pelicans in which the team hit 25 triples.
Against a Sixers defense that has been a little better than average at guarding the perimeter, the Mavericks will need to win the 3-point battle to pull out a victory. If Dallas' shooters come out hot, they'll have a legitimate shot at pulling the upset.
Final Mavericks-Sixers Prediction & Pick
While Dallas is hot right now, they've been terrible at covering the spread amidst their run. They're only 3-4 against the spread in their 6-1 run, and it took a Doncic wondershot to get them there. I'll back the team that has been more consistent when healthy all year and back the Sixers here. Philadelphia has been excellent covering spreads at home all year (10-5 ATS in Philly), so we're going with a cover for them.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: PHI 113, DAL 105 (PHI-5)
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