Two of the best teams in the NBA face off in primetime tonight, as the Los Angeles Clippers host the Brooklyn Nets for an 8:00 p.m. tip-off on ESPN. Take an in-depth look for the best prediction on the marquee matchup.
The Nets have been on a five-game road trip over the last two weeks, going 4-0 so far with quality wins against the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers. They are looking to cap off the road trip with one more victory tonight.
The Clippers have been on a roll themselves, winning five of their last six, with the most recent win coming against the hottest team in basketball in the Utah Jazz.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Nets-Clippers odds.
NBA Odds: Nets-Clippers Odds
Los Angeles Clippers -6 (-112)
Brooklyn Nets +6 (-108)
Over 235.5 Points (-110)
Under 235.5 Points (-110)
Why the Clippers can cover the spread
When the Clippers core is at full strength injury-wise, they can be one of the most unstoppable teams in the NBA.
After the win against the Jazz, former Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard said he was thrilled to get back on the court and get a big win with a healthy squad, via Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.
“We were able to be healthy and get our starting five out there, and that's what it's about. We want to get better. We haven't got a chance to really play with a full, healthy roster the last two weeks or so. So hopefully we can have some blessings and be able to stay healthy to finish 'til the All-Star [break] is started.”
The two Clipper stars in Leonard and Paul George have missed a combined 10 games. This year's Clipper squad is 6-6 when one or both of these two are out and an elite 16-3 when they both play.
Even with Durant out for a fourth consecutive game, the Nets have a boatload of offensive firepower with perennial All-Stars in James Harden and Kyrie Irving, leading to them ranking first in Offensive Efficiency.
When healthy, the Clippers can match that firepower, as Los Angeles ranks second in Offensive Efficiency themselves, while ranking first in the NBA in three-point percentage and free throw percentage.
Los Angeles can pour it in and have only lost a few times with Leonard and George playing, which should make Clippers bettors feel comfortable about what can feel like a lofty spread.
Why the Nets can cover the spread
From both a betting and a general entertainment perspective, not having Durant in this primetime matchup is tough for Brooklyn.
Even without the Slim Reaper suiting up for this one, the Nets are one of the best offensive teams in basketball and are looking like legit title contenders.
It's ridiculous how good this Brooklyn offense has been, as they rank first in Offensive Efficiency, Effective Field Goal Percentage, and Two-Point Field Goal Percentage.
Ever since demanding his way out of Houston, James Harden has played like he did in his 2017-18 MVP season.
While his numbers have dipped a smidge since that MVP year (24.2 points per game, 8.2 rebounds per game and 11.7 assists per game), he has been elite at setting up his teammates for baskets, leading the league in assists since the trade.
Having an elite point guard recently named an All-Star starter in Kyrie Irving helps boost those assist totals too, as Uncle Drew is having a standout year, averaging a career-high 27.7 points per game 58.2 percent shooting on 2s and 42.7 percent from three.
The Nets have a clear weakness, as their lack of a rim protector and inability to close out on three-point shooters has lead to Brooklyn having one of the worst defenses in the NBA, ranking 26th in defensive efficiency.
If Brooklyn can outplay their defensive expectations, Harden and Irving could certainly outduel Leonard and George, leading to Brooklyn covering the spread and potentially winning the game outright.
Final Nets-Clippers Prediction & Pick
The Nets are title contenders when Durant is on the floor, but drop down to pretty good with him on the floor. The Nets are 7-5 in games when Durant doesn't play this season, with two of those wins coming before Harden's arrival.
Look for the Clippers to dominate inside, as a frontcourt featuring Serge Ibaka and Ivica Zubac is not elite by any means, but can take advantage of mismatches inside and slow down this game for Brooklyn.
With these two squads essentially being the two most efficient offensive teams in the league, all signs point to the over hitting for the casual bettor.
A good gambler knows that whenever one thing is expected to happen by most bettors, it usually does not. That's why I would fade the Over bettors and root for defense in this matchup.
The Clippers at full strength are a legit title contender, and with Los Angeles having the upper hand on the defensive end, betting on the Clippers to cover and the under feels like the smart move.
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