The Brooklyn Nets start their mini West Coast road trip tonight as they face off against the Portland Trail Blazers. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Nets-Blazers prediction and pick.
The Nets hold a record of 29-14 overall, but only 22-21 and against the spread. Brooklyn is coming off a win over the Washington Wizards.
The Blazers stand at 25-17 overall and 21-21 against the spread. Portland is coming off a blowout loss to the Dallas Mavericks.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Nets-Blazers odds.
NBA Odds: Nets-Blazers Odds
Brooklyn Nets +3.5 (-105)
Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 (-115)
Over 231.5 Points (-110)
Under 231.5 Points (-110)
Why The Nets Could Cover The Spread
Brooklyn has been excellent at covering the spread as underdogs all season. Time and time again, the Nets have been marked as ‘dogs with stars out, and they've gone 9-2 ATS in those situations.
On the other hand, the Blazers have struggled against the spread as favorites, standing at 10-13 on the season.
The same scenario is playing out tonight. With Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving sidelined and James Harden questionable, the Nets roster is considerably thinned out.
Assuming Harden fights through neck soreness and plays, the Nets will have a shot at winning this game.
Brooklyn is the best in the league at putting points on the board, and they're playing a team tonight that has been lit up fairly often.
Portland has held an opponent to below 100 points four times all season. They've allowed 120+ points a whopping 16 times.
The Blazers have allowed opponents to shoot the third-highest field goal percentage in the league and the eighth-highest percentage from deep. Additionally, they allow the eighth-most free-throws and the eighth most offensive rebounds per game.
Basically, Portland has struggled to stop opponents in nearly every statistic. Against the best offensive team in the league, they might not be able to survive their defensive weakness.
The Nets have shown they are capable of running up the score even without Irving and Durant on the floor. Harden is more than capable of putting up numbers surrounded by the Nets shooters.
Why The Blazers Could Cover The Spread
While it's unlikely that the Nets struggle to score tonight, they are at a disadvantage in offensive firepower without two of their three stars. If Harden doesn't play, this one is almost guaranteed to get ugly.
Even assuming The Beard plays, the Nets will be without nearly 60 points of offense without Irving and Durant and one of their best shooters in Landry Shamet.
The Blazers might not put up the eye-popping numbers Brooklyn does on offense, but they can still hang around with the heavyweights.
Portland makes the second-most three-pointers in the NBA, and they are top ten in total points, three-point percentage, and free-throw makes per contest.
Damian Lillard and company live and die by the three-pointer, and they've shot it well in the Moda Center.
While playing in Portland, the Blazers have four guys that shoot 38% or better from deep on at least four attempts a game, and three of them are at 40% or higher.
C.J. McCollum is the leader of this group. The Lehigh product is shooting 43% from beyond the arc this season and is slowly getting back in form after missing 25 games.
McCollum was off in his first two games but went off for 32 points and seven three-pointers against the Mavericks in the first game. Assuming he continues to find his groove, the Nets will have to guard two guys that can score consistently in the paint, the mid-range, and from beyond the arc.
Final Nets-Blazers Prediction & Pick
Ultimately, this game hinges on James Harden's availability. Hold off on betting it until we know whether the Brooklyn star will play. If Harden plays, the Nets should give the Blazers a game but it should still be Portland to pull out a close one. The safest best in that scenario is the Blazers ML. If Harden is sidelined, Portland should run this Nets team off the floor. Play the Blazers up to -9.5 against a star-less Brooklyn squad. Keep an eye on that Nets injury report!
FINAL PICK IF HARDEN PLAYS: PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS ML
FINAL PICK IF HARDEN SITS: PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS UP TO -9.5
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