The Utah Jazz and the Denver Nuggets will face off for the third time this season tonight in Vivint Arena. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Nuggets-Jazz prediction and pick.

The Nuggets hold a record of 44-22 overall and are 32-34 against the spread. Denver is coming off an impressive win over the New York Knicks.

The Jazz stand at 48-18 overall and 38-27-1 against the spread. Utah is coming off a blowout win over the San Antonio Spurs.

Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Nuggets-Jazz NBA odds.

NBA Odds: Nuggets-Jazz Odds

Denver Nuggets +4 (-110)

Utah Jazz -4 (-110)

Over 217.5 Points (-110)

Under 217.5 Points (-110)

Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread

Both times that Denver has played the Jazz this season, they've matched up with them well. Denver won by 11 in their latest matchup, and lost by four in the first game of the series.

Denver will be without Jamal Murray for the rest of the campaign, but they have fared surprisingly well without the star guard.

Since Murray went down, the Nuggets are 10-2, mostly thanks to three factors: Nikola Jokic's dominance, a renewed defensive effort, and backcourt players stepping up to fill the void left by their starting point guard.

Jokic has essentially clinched the MVP, and he showed why he is deserving in the Nuggets last game. The Joker dropped 32 points on the Knicks in only 29 minutes of play, shooting 10-16 from the field in the blowout.

The daunting matchup against Rudy Gobert looms, but Jokic has dominated him this season. In the previous two matchups, the Serbian star is averaging 41 points on 63% shooting.

Jokic isn't the only one scoring. Facundo Campazzo, Michael Porter Jr, and Austin Rivers have all taken turns playing second fiddle to the Joker.

Rivers dropped 25 on the Knicks for his Nuggets career high in their last matchup. Campazzo has given the team badly needed efficient minutes at the point guard position, and MPJ is capable of dropping 20-25 on any given night.

Defensively, the Nuggets have been clamping teams. Three of their last six opponents have failed to break 100 points. They held one of the best offenses in the league in the Clippers to only 104 points, ten points lower than their season average. It's one of the main reasons the NBA odds have set a lower total of 217.5 in this contest.

With Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell missing this matchup, the Nuggets could continue their defensive dominance.

Why The Jazz Could Cover The Spread

The Jazz have been cash for bettors at home all season and hold the best home spread record in the NBA. They are an eye-popping 22-10-1 when playing in Vivint Arena.

Like the Nuggets recent success, Utah's wins have been produced by their defense. All season, Utah has locked down opponents.

The Jazz allow the third least amount of points in the league and hold opponents to the second lowest field goal percentage and the second lowest three-point percentage in the NBA.

With Mitchell and Conley missing their last few games, Utah's scoring has struggled, but their defensive intensity remains. They have held their opponent under their scoring average in six of their last seven matchups.

With Denver missing almost it's entire backcourt, it's likely the Jazz continue their defensive dominance. No disrespect to Campazzo or Rivers, who are very solid players, but it takes stars to consistently break down elite defenses. This is part of the reason the NBA odds favor Utah in this affair. It would be a shock to see Rivers have a performance like he did against the Knicks tonight against Utah.

The key for Utah is getting enough points on the board to get them to the finish line. As they've done all year, they'll turn to the three-point line.

The Jazz hold the fourth highest team three-point percentage in the NBA. Even without their starting backcourt, Utah has five players shooting above 38% from deep on at least 2.5 attempts per game. With so many shooting threats, it's tough for any team to cover all of them.

Look for Utah to continue their hot shooting and launch plenty of three-pointers tonight.

Final Nuggets-Jazz Prediction & Pick

In a game with serious seeding implications, I expect both teams to come out of the gates giving it everything. I give a slight edge to the Nuggets based on their recent run and the fact that Jokic has been unstoppable against the Jazz. Utah is 4-1 in their last five, but their four wins came against under .500 teams. Their one loss was a blowout L to the Suns. Utah hasn't shown me they can hang with top tier teams with their stars out. I'll back Jokic to put up another monster game and Denver to at the very least keep it close tonight, and place a smaller more conservative bet on Denver to get the upset.

FINAL PICK: DEN 111, UTA 107 (DENVER NUGGETS +4)