The Denver Nuggets (33-14) visit the New Orleans Pelicans (26-21) on Tuesday night. Action tips off at 8:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Nuggets-Pelicans prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Denver is coming off a home loss to Oklahoma City but still sits in first place in the Western Conference. The Nuggets covered 52% of their games while 53% went under the projected point total. New Orleans has lost four straight yet remains in fourth place in the West. The Pelicans covered 49% of their games while 58% went over. This will be the second of four meetings between the two teams. New Orleans took the first game at home 121-106 in early December.
Here are the Nuggets-Pelicans NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Nuggets-Pelicans Odds
Denver Nuggets: -1 (-108)
New Orleans Pelicans +1 (-112)
Over: 230 (-110)
Under: 230 (-110)
How To Watch Nuggets vs. Pelicans
TV: Attitude, Bally New Orleans
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT
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Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
Denver has a great chance to cover the spread tonight thanks to their elite offense. The Nuggets rank fifth in scoring (117.2 PPG) and can score in a multitude of ways. They rank fifth in fast break points (16.8 PPG), fifth in points in the paint (55.1 PPG), and lead the league in three-point percentage (40%). Denver does an excellent job moving the ball on offense as they rank second in assists (28.8 APG). That being said, the Nuggets have a number of injury question marks as Nikola Jokic and Bones Hyland are questionable while Michael Porter Jr. is out.
With Jokic and Hyland banged up, point guard Jamal Murray projects to see a massive spike in usage. Murray ranks second on the team in scoring with 18.9 PPG. Similarly, Murray ranks second on the team in assists with 5.7 APG. On a team with the two-time reigning MVP, Murray takes a back seat to Jokic in a majority of games. However, he has shown the ability to produce as the No. 1 option. With Jokic out the last two games, Murray averaged 21.5 PPG, 11.5 APG, and 7.5 RPG while shooting 48%. That included a triple-double against the Pacers last weekend.
Those injuries should mean forward Aaron Gordon sees an uptick in usage as well. Gordon has had one of the more productive seasons of his career thus far, averaging 16.7 PPG and 6.8 RPG while setting career-highs in shooting numbers (58% from the field and 38% from three). Gordon averaged 21.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG across their last two games and should see similar success against a New Orleans team he scored 19 points against in their previous meeting.
Denver's X-factor tonight is forward Bruce Brown. Primarily a bench player, Brown has been called upon to step up given their injuries. He performed well in an expanded role, averaging 15.5 PPG while shooting 44% from three across their last two games.
Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
New Orleans finds themselves in a bit of a rough patch as they've dropped four in a row and are just 3-8 since the start of the new year. That being said, they have a strong chance to cover tonight as home underdogs thanks to their work on the glass. New Orleans ranks sixth in rebounding (53.1 RPG) and rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rebound rate.
While the Pelicans' offense has fallen off a bit in the wake of numerous injuries, they remain a solid unit that ranks ninth in scoring (116 PPG). As a result, they have a great opportunity to expose a middling Denver defense en route to covering tonight. New Orleans' offense is led by veteran guard CJ McCollum. CJ averages 21.1 PPG for the season but has taken on an expanded role thanks to injuries to both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. Since Zion went down, CJ averaged 25.4 PPG and 5.1 APG while shooting 45% from the floor.
Speaking of stepping up in Zion's absence, both Jonas Valanciunas and Naji Marshall provided incredible production since Zion went down earlier this month. Valanciunas ranks second on the team with 20 PPG while pacing the team with 11.8 RPG. Marshall is right behind him, averaging 17.8 PPG. Both players will likely see huge roles tonight as Zion and Ingram continue to recover.
Final Nuggets-Pelicans Prediction & Pick
This is a huge wait-and-see based on the health of Nikola Jokic but right now I still feel comfortable laying a point with the visiting Nuggets. Denver has a chance to win even if he's out, but if Jokic is activated this line will shoot up a fair amount.
Final Nuggets-Pelicans Prediction & Pick: Denver Nuggets -1 (-108)
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