The Detroit Pistons (7-20) visit the Memphis Grizzlies (16-9) on Friday. Action tips off at 8:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Pistons-Grizzlies prediction and pick.
Detroit enters tonight’s matchup fresh off a loss to the Pelicans which dropped them to 14th in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons are 14-11-2 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone over. Memphis has shot up to third in the Western Conference thanks to four consecutive wins. The Grizzlies are 12-12-1 against the spread while 50% of their games have gone over. This will be the second and final meeting between the teams this season. Memphis took a 122-112 victory in the first game.
Here are the Pistons-Grizzlies NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Pistons-Grizzlies Odds
Detroit Pistons: +10.5 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies: -10.5 (-110)
Over: 227.5 (-108)
Under: 227.5 (-112)
Why The Pistons Could Cover The Spread
Detroit has been predictably one of the worst teams in the league this season. They are below average in nearly every facet of the game including ranking 24th in scoring and 23rd in offensive rating. Their defense is near the bottom of the league with ranks of 27th in points allowed and 29th in defensive rating. The Pistons don’t do themselves any favors on the glass where they rank 26th in rebound differential and 17th in rebound rate.
In the continued absence of Cade Cunningham, the Pistons have relied on a combination of savvy veterans and raw young talents to fill their scoring void. 33-year-old Bojan Bogdanovic leads the team in scoring with 20.4 PPG. He’s been remarkably efficient as well, shooting 51% from the field and 44% from three on nearly six attempts per game. Bogdanovic has been a popular name in trade rumors as the veteran continues to play well on a Pistons team all but assured to miss the playoffs. He doesn’t offer much outside of his scoring, but he did notably score 18 points on 50% shooting in their previous matchup with the Grizzlies.
As for the young guns, rookie Jaden Ivey and third-year forward Saddiq Bey have taken on much bigger roles since Cunningham went down. Ivey is the team’s second-leading healthy scorer outside Bogdanovic, averaging 15.5 PPG on 41% shooting. He’s had a tough stretch of late, however, as he’s failed to eclipse 12 points in each of his last three games. His struggles opened to door for Bey to take over as the primary scorer. Bey has averaged 21 PPG on 47% shooting over their last three games. He was Detroit’s player in their previous matchup with Memphis, scoring 24 points and dishing out seven assists in the loss. Bey’s recent run of success and previous performance against Memphis are worth keeping in mind before making a Pistons-Grizzlies prediction.
Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
Memphis has continued last year’s strong regular season performance into this year. The Grizzlies feature a solid offense that ranks ninth in both scoring and offensive rating. They’re nearly as good defensively, ranking 13th in points allowed and tenth in defensive rating. Where Memphis really excels is on the glass as they rank first in both rebound differential and rebound rate. However, center Steven Adams is listed as questionable for tonight’s game due to an injury.
While leading rebounder Steven Adams is questionable tonight, Grizzlies’ backers should rest easy knowing Jaren Jackson Jr. is fully capable of handling an increased role down low. Jackson Jr. has been phenomenal in limited action since returning from injury. Although he’s played just 26 minutes per game in his nine appearances, JJ averages a stellar 18.6 PPG and 6.2 RPG. He’s shooting 49% from the field and 35% from three while making nearly two triples per game. His biggest impact on the spread, however, comes via his defense. Jackson Jr. is a skilled shot blocker who’s averaged 3.1 blocks per game. He ranks second in the NBA during that span – something to keep in mind before making a Pistons-Grizzlies prediction.
Of course, the biggest factor in Memphis covering tonight is the play of Ja Morant. The Grizzlies’ star point guard has been incredible this season especially considering the increased attention on him with Desmond Bane missing an extended period of time. For the season, Morant has averaged 28.3 PPG and 7.6 APG (both top ten in the league). He scored 33 points and dished out ten assists while shooting 52% in their previous meeting with Detroit – a game in which they won by ten on the road.
Final Pistons-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick
Despite Detroit’s brutal record, they’ve been solid against the spread with a 56% cover rate. Pay attention to the injury report as Steven Adams sitting tonight would make Detroit an even more enticing play than it already is.
Final Pistons-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick: Detroit Pistons +10.5 (-110)