The Detroit Pistons (6-19) visit the Miami Heat (11-13) on Tuesday night. Action tips off at 7:30 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Pistons-Heat prediction and pick.
Detroit finds themselves losers of four of their last five games and has plummeted down to 14th place in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons are 12-11-2 against the spread while 63% of their games have gone under. Miami, meanwhile, has lost two of their last three but still sits in ninth in the East. The Heat are 8-15-1 against the spread while 54% of their games have gone over. This will be the first of three games between the teams this season. Last year Miami went 3-1 against Detroit.
Here are the Pistons-Heat NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Pistons-Heat Odds
Detroit Pistons: +8.5 (-110)
Miami Heat: -8.5 (-110)
Over: 220.5 (-110)
Under: 220.5 (-110)
Why The Pistons Could Cover The Spread
Despite a plethora of young talent, the Pistons have quickly fallen from the ranks in the East and now find themselves firmly in the mix for the top pick in next summer's NBA draft. That being said, the Pistons do have a number of exciting young players. Unfortunately, that potential is largely unrealized as Detroit struggles in all facets of the game. The Pistons rank in the bottom ten in scoring, points allowed, and both offensive and defensive efficiency. Detroit also struggles to rebound the ball, ranking 26th in rebound differential and 18th in rebound rate. The Pistons will again be without guard Cade Cunningham as he remains out with an injury.
In Cunningham's absence, Detroit has more widely distributed their offensive scoring load. In the 13 games since he last played, seven Pistons average at least 10 points per game. Leading the way is forward Bojan Bogdanovic. Bojan has been outstanding since signing with Detroit this offseason. The 33-year-old continues to improve his overall game and is flirting with a 50-40-90 season thus far. Since Cade was ruled out, Bogdanovic has averaged 22 PPG while shooting 53% from the field and 36% from three. He doesn't contribute much outside of scoring as he averages just 3.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists. Nevertheless, he's a capable scorer to whom the Heat will surely be throwing their full attention.
Outside of Bogdanovic, rookie guard Jaden Ivey has been awarded the most expanded role – one which could prove vitally important for Detroit's chances to cover. Ivey is a uber-talented but raw guard who drew comparisons to Ja Morant in the draft. He's not at that level quite yet but has proven to be a capable scorer already. Since Cunningham went out, Ivey has averaged 16.5 PPG although he's shot under 40% from the field. He's been a solid contributor outside of scoring by contributing 4.3 RPG and 4.8 APG. Ivey does have three 20-point games to his name — something Detroit desperately needs if they want to cover.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami has slowly turned its season around following a rough start. The Heat still have work to do, however, particularly on the offensive end. Miami ranks just 28th in scoring and 25th in offensive efficiency. Their record has been propped up by their stellar defense which ranks eighth in points allowed and seventh in defensive efficiency. They struggle on the glass as well, ranking 25th in rebound differential and 23rd in rebound rate.
The Heat got a big boost lately when star Jimmy Butler returned from injury. He provides the team not only with a lockdown all-around defender, but also a scoring pretense the team desperately needs. For the season, Butler averages 21 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 6.0 APG. He's in the midst of one of the most efficient seasons of his career as well. The 33-year-old shoots 49.5% from the field and 35.3% from three. Butler was stellar in his two games since returning to action, scoring 25 and 18 points, respectively. He shot 18-32 during that span.
If Miami wants to cover a hefty spread, they will need to be much better on the glass. Butler's return certainly helps that, but all eyes should be on center Bam Adebayo. Adebayo has been stellar this season, averaging 20.7 PPG and 9.0 RPG. He's an important part of their offense and the linchpin to their top-ten defense. His rebounding has been inconsistent, however. On paper, the Heat should dominate the glass against a weak Detroit frontcourt. The Heat are 6-3 this season when Bam pulls down at least 10 rebounds – something to keep in mind before making a Pistons-Heat prediction.
Final Pistons-Heat Prediction & Pick
Miami has looked much better now that Butler is back and the Pistons seem destined for one of the worst records in the league. Look for Miami to dominate in what should be a get-right game.
Final Pistons-Heat Prediction & Pick:
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