The Miami Heat take on the Toronto Raptors in South Beach on Wednesday night. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Raptors-Heat prediction and pick.
The Heat hold an overall record of 14-17, but they are only 12-18-1 against the spread. Miami's last game was a victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Raptors stand at 16-16 overall, and they are 15-17 against the spread. Toronto is coming off a loss to the Sixers on Tuesday night.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Raptors-Heat odds.
NBA Odds: Raptors-Heat Odds
Miami Heat -2.5 (-110)
Toronto Raptors +2.5 (-110)
Over 214 Points (-112)
Under 214 Points (-108)
Why The Raptors Could Cover The Spread
The Raptors are in the midst of an impressive stretch.
While their winning streak ended on Tuesday, they were coming off four straight wins, with three of them coming against championship contenders.
After starting the season 2-8, the Raptors turned their season around with a 14-8 run.
The two biggest factors in the Raps' improvement were three-point shooting and hard-nosed defense.
In their first ten games, the Raptors shot above 38% from beyond the arc a total of three times and were in the bottom percentile of the league in three-point percentage.
Currently, the Raptors are eighth in three-point percentage and have the third most makes from beyond the arc.
This is good news for Raptors bettors tonight against a team that has allowed the third-most three-pointers in the league.
The Heat have been torched from the perimeter time and time again, allowing an average of 15 three-point makes a game.
With Kyle Lowry probable to return from a four-game hiatus on Wednesday, Miami will have yet another shooter to worry about.
The Heat are good at controlling the painted area defensively (4th lowest opponent field goal percentage), but it won't matter if the Raptors' shooters come out hot.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
The Heat could get a big name off the injury list tonight with Goran Dragic questionable to play.
Miami's leading scorer in their playoff run last year has been badly missed. The Heat average the fifth least points in the league, and they'll need all the offensive help they can get against a stingy Raptors defense. Dragic's 15 points a game will be integral to Miami's success not just on Wednesday, but for the rest of the season.
Both of these defenses have been solid at keeping opponents off the board through the first half of the season. While Miami struggles at the three-point line, they have locked down the paint.
Of all the teams in the league, the Heat allow the least points in the painted area at 40.2 points per game. To be successful tonight, they must funnel Lowry and Fred VanVleet away from the three-point line and into the hands of Bam Adebayo and company.
Offensively, the Heat have been clicking. In four of their last five games, they have topped their scoring average (106.9 PPG), with the one miss coming against arguably the best defense in the league.
Most impressively, Miami has been putting up numbers with a well-rounded effort. All of their scorers have hit double-digits in two of their last three games.
If Dragic returns, the number of weapons the Heat have on the offensive end only grows.
Final Raptors-Heat Prediction & Pick
With both teams in great form and solid defensively, this game seems destined to come down to the wire. Miami only has three victories with a double-digit margin in 2021, and with the Raptors shooting talent, I can't see this getting away from Toronto. Even if the Raps falls behind early, their three-point prowess can bring them back in quickly. I'll back the Raptors to take a close one in South Beach.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: TOR 106, MIA 102 (TOR +2.5)
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