The San Antonio Spurs (6-9) travel to face the Sacramento Kings (7-6) on Thursday night. Tipoff is scheduled for 10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Spurs-Kings prediction and pick.
San Antonio started the season strong but has since lost seven of their last eight games. The Spurs are 9-6 against the spread while 57% of their games have gone under. Sacramento has been on the opposite trajectory. They started slow but have since won seven of their last nine games. The Kings are 10-3 against the spread while 50% of their games have gone over.
Sacramento won two of three games against San Antonio last season by seven and three-point margins. The Spurs won their one game by 19. Two of the three matchups went under tonight's 238-point total.
Here are the Spurs-Kings NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Spurs-Kings Odds
San Antonio Spurs: +7 (-110)
Sacramento Kings: -7 (-110)
Over: 237.5 (-110)
Under: 237.5 (-110)
Why The Spurs Could Cover The Spread
San Antonio features a solid offense which is 15th in scoring and 25th in offensive efficiency. They've really been hurt on defense, however, where they rank last in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency. The Spurs haven't done themselves any favors on the glass, either, as they are 21st in rebound differential and 23rd in rebound rate.
If the Spurs are going to cover tonight, they are going to have to keep up with Sacramento's high-powered offense. However, San Antonio certainly has the pieces to do that thanks to a pair of budding young stars. 23-year-old Keldon Johnson and 22-year-old Devin Vassell lead the team in scoring – continuing San Antonio's proven track record of developing late draft picks.
Johnson (the 29th pick in the 2019 draft) leads the team in scoring with 22.7 PPG. He's done so in an incredibly efficient manner. The forward shoots 45% from the field and 42% from three. He's also continued to develop as a passer, averaging a career-high 3.6 APG. Johnson has struggled of late, however, as he's shot above 45% and scored more than 20 points just once over his last four games.
Even if Keldon Johnson continues to struggle, the Spurs are not without hope of covering. Devin Vassell (the 11th pick in the 2020 draft) is in the midst of a breakout season. The 6'5″ guard has averaged a career-high 19.6 PPG thus far. He's been efficient while doing so, too. Vassell shoots 46% from the field and 42% from three. Like Johnson, Vassell has progressed nicely as a distributor. He has dished out 3.4 assists per game this season. Vassell has shown the ability to take over games (eight games with at least 20 points) but struggles with consistency. The Kings have been susceptible to opposing guards, however, which puts him in a nice spot to have a big night.
Why The Kings Could Cover The Spread
Sacramento was a trendy sleeper pick in the preseason but an 0-4 hampered expectations dramatically. They've been much better since that first week and are in the midst of a four-game win streak. The Kings feature one of the most explosive offenses in the league. They rank second in points per game and offensive efficiency. Defensively, it is a different story. For as well as Sacramento can score, they are equally adept at giving up points. The Kings are 27th in points allowed and 27th in defensive efficiency. Luckily, they are decent enough rebounding where it doesn't hurt them (16th in rebound differential/ 14th in rebound rate).
The Kings' high-powered offense is captained by point guard De'Aaron Fox. Fox is in the midst of the best season of his career – averaging 24.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 6.3 APG. The biggest jump in his game has been in his efficiency. Fox shoots 54% from the field and 36% from three. He has been the catalyst for the league's second-best offense and has shown the ability to take over games when needed. Fox already has four 30-point games this season.
Outside of Fox, the Kings have a number of capable scorers that fuel their offensive juggernaut. Forward Domantas Sabonis and guard Kevin Huerter both average over 16 points per game. Sabonis started ice cold but has really picked it up lately. The skilled big man averages 17.8 PPG, 11 RPG, and 6.3 APG. His skill is unique for a man of his stature. The 6'11 big is an excellent passer and is second among big men in assists. Huerter, on the other hand, has been lights out from three. He doesn't provide much besides scoring and shooting but he does so at a high rate. For the season, Huerter averages 16.8 PPG on 53% shooting from beyond the arc.
Final Spurs-Kings Prediction & Pick
With two teams headed in opposite directions, we'll continue to ride with the red-hot Kings until they give us a reason not to.
Final Spurs-Kings Prediction & Pick: Sacramento Kings -7 (-110)
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