The Phoenix Suns face off against the Los Angeles Lakers for a Pacific Division showdown on Tuesday. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Suns-Lakers prediction and pick.
The Suns currently hold a record of 22-11 both straight up and against the spread. Phoenix is coming off a win over the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Lakers stand at 24-11 but are only 16-19 against the spread. Los Angeles is on a two-game winning streak and is coming off a blowout win over the Golden State Warriors.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Suns-Lakers odds.
NBA Odds: Suns vs. Lakers Odds
Phoenix Suns +1.5 (-112)
Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 (-108)
Over 214.5 Points (-115)
Under 214.5 Points (-105)
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
While the Suns haven't been totally unstoppable on the offensive end with Chris Paul and Devin Booker leading the way, they still rank as a top-10 offense.
Phoenix is especially adept at sharing the ball, averaging just under 27 assists per matchup. The excellent passing has also translated to one of the lowest turnover rates in the league at just 12.3 giveaways a game.
Getting quality looks and maintaining possession is a key factor in defeating the Lakers. Because of the Lakers' stifling defense, it's very difficult to blitz them out of a matchup.
The Lakers have lost by double digits four times this season. Three of those four losses came to top-five 3-point shooting teams (Jazz, Nuggets, Nets).
The Suns don't have quite enough offensive firepower to pull off the feat that Utah did a few days ago. Because of this, they'll rely on Paul to orchestrate the offense and break down a defense that has been stingy all season.
Paul has been in full Point God mode in the Suns' last three games, averaging 15.0 points, 13.3 assists, and 1.7 steals over the stretch. The Suns don't need a huge scoring output from Paul as long as he controls the pace of the offense and plays his bulldog defense.
Defensively, the Suns have the opportunity to slow a Lakers offense that has been streaky.
Los Angeles has topped 110 points only three times in its past seven matchups, struggling to find any consistency. This will be an important mark on Tuesday, as the Suns are nearly unbeatable when their opponent fails to hit that sum. A Phoenix opponent has scored under 110 points and won only three times all season.
The Suns are No. 4 in points allowed per game and No. 2 in 3-pointers allowed per game. While they might not be on the same level as the Lakers defensively, they have shown they are more than capable of slowing down offenses.
Why The Lakers Could Cover The Spread
After a brutal stretch of four straight losses, the Lakers seem to have found their groove again. Los Angeles recorded back-to-back comfortable wins against solid teams in the Blazers and Warriors.
In both victories, the Lakers used their lockdown defense to shut down two high-powered offenses. Their two opponents combined to shoot 39.6% from the field and 26% from the 3-point line.
Los Angeles has clamped teams all season, ranking No. 1 in defensive rating.
In a game that's expected to be a slugfest, the Lakers should be in their element. The Lakers have played 12 games where neither team tops 110 points, and they're 8-4 in those games.
Offensively, the Lakers will continue to rely on LeBron James to jumpstart their scoring.
Over their last two wins, LeBron averaged 23.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists. The Lakers will depend on him to have a big night on offense and hope they can get at least one other Laker to have a major contribution.
The Lakers' second-leading scorer varies from night to night with Anthony Davis still out. Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell, and Kyle Kuzma are all eligible candidates to take the role against Phoenix.
In a lower-scoring matchup, the Lakers don't need a complete team effort like they had against the Warriors to win this one. LeBron and one other 20-point scorer could be enough to get the job done.
The Lakers' focus should be on the defensive end, and the hope is they can grind out enough points to pull out a close win.
Final Suns-Lakers Prediction & Pick
The Lakers have been extremely impressive defensively, but the Suns have been nearly as good on that. The Lakers win games by shutting off the perimeter, but Phoenix does not entirely rely on the 3-pointer to win. Only 35% of the Suns' points come from the 3-point line, and they're more than capable of getting enough points from the paint and inside the arc to stay in this game. Phoenix has toasted bad teams recently, so the Lakers will be their biggest challenge of late. I'll take the Suns to get a statement win here as they attempt to raise some eyebrows in a loaded Western Conference.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: PHX 109, LAL 103 (PHX +1.5)
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