The Oklahoma City Thunder (11-13) visit the Memphis Grizzlies (15-9). Action tips off at 8:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Thunder-Grizzlies prediction and pick.

Oklahoma City has won three consecutive games but still sits in 12th place in the Western Conference. The Thunder are 15-9 against the spread while 67% of their games have gone over. Memphis has also won three straight to bump them to third in the West. The Grizzlies are 11-12-1 against the spread while 52% of their games have gone over. This will be the second of four games between the teams this season. Memphis took the first game, 121-110.

Here are the Thunder-Grizzlies NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel

NBA Odds: Thunder-Grizzlies Odds

Oklahoma City Thunder: +8 (-110)

Memphis Grizzlies: -8 (-110)

Over: 232.5 (-110)

Under: 232.5 (-110)

Why The Thunder Could Cover The Spread

Oklahoma City has been one of the more surprising teams in the Western Conference thus far. Largely predicted to tank this season, the Thunder have been very competitive thanks to a strong offense that ranks sixth in scoring and 14th in offensive efficiency. Their defense and ability to rebound have largely held them back, however. The Thunder rank 29th in points allowed and 19th in defensive efficiency. They’re even worse on the glass where they rank 28th in rebound differential and 27th in rebound rate. The Thunder hold a 5-8 record on the road this season.

Live and breathe the NBA?

🚨 Get viral NBA graphics, memes, rumors and trending news delivered right to your inbox with the Clutch Newsletter.

If there is a single reason why Oklahoma City could cover tonight it would be the play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA has been a man on a mission this season, averaging 31.3 PPG and 6.0 APG on 51% shooting. He’s been the heart and soul of an Oklahoma City team that wasn’t expected to do much of anything this season. SGA ranks third in the league in scoring and has scored 30+ points in ten of their last eleven consecutive games.

That being said, the one game he didn’t score 30 did come against his opponent tonight, the Grizzlies. In their loss to Memphis SGA scored just 15 points on 6-18 shooting. That’s a recurring theme for the young guard as he’s averaged just 17 PPG on 39% shooting against the Grizzlies. His struggles against Memphis are worth keeping in mind when making a Thunder-Grizzlies prediction.

While SGA shouldn’t be expected to struggle every game against Memphis, Oklahoma City will clearly need some additional help if they want to cover tonight. Lately, that production has come from rookie forward Jalen Williams. Over his last five games, Williams averaged 13.8 PPG on 57% shooting. He had one of the strongest games of the season in their last meeting with Memphis, scoring 16 points on 50% shooting in the loss.

Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread

Memphis continues to be a strong regular-season team thanks to their all-around play. Memphis ranks tenth in both scoring and offensive efficiency. They’re a stingy defensive unit where they place 14th in points allowed and eighth in defensive efficiency. Memphis’ biggest strength lies in their ability to rebound. The Grizzlies rank first in both rebound differential and rebound rate. Memphis holds one of the best home records in the league at 9-2. They will notably be without forward Jake LaRavia tonight and Desmond Bane remains out.

Despite standout guard Desmond Bane missing extended time with injury, the Grizzlies have largely stayed the course thanks to the return of forward Jaren Jackson Jr. JJ ranks third on the team with 19.4 PPG since Bane went out on November 11th. He’s also chipped in 6.6 RPG and 2.9 BPG despite playing only 26.3 minutes per game. Jackson Jr. is still rounding into form as he continues to recover from offseason surgery, but he’s looked more and more like his previous self as of late. He’s coming off back-to-back 22-point games and has shot over 50% in three straight games. Jackson Jr. scored 25 points in their previous meeting and figures to be in for a huge night yet again matched up with a vulnerable Oklahoma City frontcourt.

No matter what Memphis gets from Jackson Jr. and the rest of their surrounding players, their ability to cover tonight rests on the shoulders of star guard Ja Morant. Morant has a tough matchup tonight as he’ll go toe-to-toe with one of the best guards in the league in Gilegous-Alexander. He’s been a terror in Bane’s absence, averaging 28 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 8.1 APG in his last eight games. That being said, Morant struggled by his standards in their previous meeting with OKC, scoring just 19 points on 25% shooting.

Final Thunder-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick

Memphis could easily dominate the glass tonight but even so, I’m expecting a motivated SGA to keep the Thunder close tonight.

Final Thunder-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder +8 (-110)