The Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Dallas Mavericks. Check out our NBA odds series, which includes our Thunder-Mavericks prediction and pick.
The Oklahoma City Thunder do not have a fully healthy version of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They have top draft pick Chet Holmgren out for the full season with an injury. Like a number of other Western Conference teams such as the San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz, the Thunder were expected to tank this season. Given OKC's recent history, why wouldn't the organization use the Holmgren injury to once again develop young players, get a top draft pick, and continue to build for the future? It made conceptual sense, but much as the Spurs and Jazz do not look like tanking teams — and have the resources to make a real run at the play-in round — the Thunder are similarly overperforming.
The Los Angeles Clippers were viewed heading into the NBA season as a Western Conference title contender. The Thunder just ran them off the floor in two consecutive games. Oklahoma City didn't slightly squeak by; it hammered the Clippers twice and was steadily in control of both games. The Clippers left Oklahoma shaking their heads, while the Thunder should be encouraged by what they have seen thus far. Their three losses came to the Timberwolves and Nuggets. They haven't lost to a mediocre-or-worse team yet. Gilgeous-Alexander missed one of the two Clipper games, but he has still played four games this season and is averaging close to 30 points per game. Josh Giddey has been a great floor leader and rebounder for the Thunder, averaging 14 points, eight rebounds, and five assists. The young stars have played up to their capabilities; the bench and role players need to improve.
The Dallas Mavericks blew a 17-point halftime lead in their season opener against the Phoenix Suns. They have responded well to that bitter disappointment, winning three of their next four games and beating the Brooklyn Nets on the road this past Thursday night. As the season moves ahead for Dallas, the big challenge for the Mavericks will be to move the ball and display the offensive fluidity they had when Jalen Brunson was playing alongside Luka Doncic in the backcourt. There is a distinct worry among Mavs fans that Doncic is hunting 3-pointers too much and is not getting to the rim enough, where he finishes better and is a more effective scorer. Brunson's absence (he is now on the New York Knicks) requires that Doncic get to the basket and force defenses to collapse. Doncic won't create opportunities for his teammates if he leans on his outside shooting too much.
Here are the Thunder-Mavericks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel:
NBA Odds: Thunder-Mavericks Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder: +10.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks: -10.5 (-110)
Over: 218.5 (-110)
Under: 218.5 (-110)
Why The Thunder Could Cover The Spread
The Thunder just wiped the floor with the Clippers in two games, winning by a combined 18 points and establishing a minimum margin of victory of eight points. They have been very competitive through five games. They lost to the Nuggets by only five on the road. They led the Timberwolves by six points late in the third quarter of their season opener in Minneapolis before ultimately losing. They can definitely keep this game close.
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
The Mavs are facing an OKC team which will not have Josh Giddey available. Giddey is out for this contest, and that's why the spread is so large. Giddey scores, rebounds and passes. He does everything for the Thunder. His absence is enormous.
Final Thunder-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
The Giddey injury matters a ton. Dallas should be able to win big.
Final Thunder-Mavericks Prediction & Pick: Mavericks -10.5
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