The Golden State Warriors (3-5) take on the Orlando Magic (1-7) in an inter-conference matchup. Tipoff is scheduled for 7 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Warriors-Magic prediction and pick.
Golden State has struggled of late – losing three consecutive games. In their last outing, they suffered a seven-point loss to Miami. The Warriors have been even worse against the spread (ATS), covering in just two of eight games. The defending champs have been an over-machine, however, with six of their eight games going over.
Orlando has predictably been one of the bottom teams in the league thus far with their lone win coming against Charlotte. They've been nearly as bad against the spread going just 2-5-1. Four of their eight games have gone over.
The teams split the season series last year with each team defending their home court. Golden State took their home matchup by 31, while Orlando won theirs by four. Both of last year's matchups failed to surpass tonight's 226-point total.
Here are the Warriors-Magic NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Warriors-Magic Odds
Golden State Warriors: -9.5 (-106)
Orlando Magic: +9.5 (-114)
Over: 226 (-110)
Under: 226 (-110)
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
Despite Golden State's struggles, they have shown flashes of the finals-quality team they are and have the track record to cover on the road with ease. The Warriors still possess one of the league's most potent offenses. They rank fourth in points per game and 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Golden State's main issues lie on the defensive end. They rank 29th in points allowed and 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They've been nearly as bad on the glass, coming in at 22nd in rebound differential. However, there are reasons to be optimistic (at least tonight), and those start with the heart of their team: Steph Curry.
Say what you will about the Warriors' play so far, but that should take nothing away from the season point guard Steph Curry is having. Curry has been one of the lone bright spots for Golden State. Curry leads the team in scoring (30 PPG), assists (6.5 APG), rebounding (7.5 RPG), and steals (1.4 SPG). He's done so despite taking six shots per game more than anyone else and making 47% overall and 40% from three. Curry has terrorized the Magic in recent years as well. Since the 2015-16 season, Steph has averaged 33.3 points, 7.3 assists, and 6.3 rebounds in nine matchups with Orlando. He's shot 47% from three against the Magic – something to keep in mind when making a Warriors-Magic prediction.
If the Warriors are going to cover, however, they're going to need someone other than Steph to show up. While the Magic have been subpar, they have enough good young players that they could outlast a strictly one-man show from Golden State. In last year's matchups, Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins stepped up against the Magic. While Poole's 26-point outing occurred in their loss, Wiggins' 28-point performance propelled them to an easy victory in the home matchup.
Poole and Wiggins have easily been the Warriors' best players outside of Steph. Poole has struggled from three (32%) but still averages 16.8 points. Wiggins, on the other hand, has been fantastic. He's averaged 17.8 points and 6.0 rebounds while shooting a respectable 46.2% from the field and 38.8% from three. Wiggins in particular was stellar in their last outing – amassing 21 points in their loss to Miami.
Why The Magic Could Cover The Spread
Orlando is the opposite of Golden State as they feature a solid defense but a horrendous offense. The Magic are 29th in scoring and rank 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They've been much better on the defensive side – ranking 12th in fewest points allowed and 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Magic really excel on the glass as their plus-3.8 rebounding differential ranks third in the league.
Orlando has been brutalized by injuries this season – particularly on the perimeter. The absence of guards Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs has forced rookie phenom, Paolo Banchero, into a primary role to great success. Banchero leads the team and all rookies in scoring at 21.8 PPG and he's second on the Magic in both rebounding (7.6 RPG) and assists (3.6 APG). Banchero is still a rookie, however, and that shows in his percentages (44% FG% and 28% 3P%) and his carelessness with the ball (2.8 turnovers per game).
Outside of Bancerho, second-year man Franz Wagner has turned heads with his play to start the year. He, too, has been forced to have the ball in his lands a lot more thanks to their various injuries. His response has been excellent. Wagner averages 15.8 points and 4.4 assists per game. He's been cold from deep to start the year (19.4% 3P%), but has served as an excellent complimentary piece to Banchero.
Final Warriors-Magic Prediction & Pick
The Magic have been frisky and have a lot of good young players. With how poor Golden State has played I don't think we can pick them with confidence until they prove their back to the Warriors teams we've grown accustomed to.
Final Warriors-Magic Prediction & Pick: Orlando Magic +9.5 (-114)
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