The Golden State Warriors continue their Texas road trip with the first game of a back-to-back set against the San Antonio Spurs.  It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Warriors-Spurs prediction and pick.
The Warriors stand at 12-11 both overall and against the spread. Golden State is coming off a close shootout loss to the Dallas Mavericks.
Like the Warriors, the Spurs hold identical records overall and against the spread, standing at 13-10 in both. San Antonio won a close game against the Houston Rockets in their most recent outing.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Warriors-Spurs odds.
NBA Odds: Warriors-Spurs Odds
Golden State Warriors +2 (-113)
San Antonio Spurs -2 (-107)
Over 232.5 PTS (-105)
Under 232.5 PTS (-115)
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
While San Antonio holds a solid against the spread record, the Spurs have struggled to cover as favorites. They hold a record of 4-6 ATS when holding the upper hand.
Conversely, the Warriors have covered in three of their last four matchups, and missed going a perfect 4-4 by two points against the Celtics.
Golden State has stayed in games with a combination of two factors this season: solid defense and Stephen Curry.
In their last two matchups, the defensive factor hasn't played as big of a role. The Warriors allowed the Mavericks to combine for 250 points over two games.
Without James Wiseman or Kevon Looney, Golden State has shifted its strategy to shooting opponents off the floor.
The Warriors launched 88 three-pointers in their two game set against Dallas, connecting on 42 of them. Curry was responsible for 15 of those makes.
Dallas had defended the perimeter fairly well all season and held opponents to the 11th lowest three-point percentage in the league, making those performances even more impressive.
Spurs opponents, on the other hand, average the fifth-highest three-point percentage in the league.
Just over two weeks ago, the Warriors ran the Spurs off the floor in a 121-99 blowout, and they only made 15 threes in that matchup. Expect Golden State to up that number on Monday in hopes of getting another big win.
Why The Spurs Could Cover The Spread
The last two Spurs victories have come in typical San Antonio fashion: tough, resilient play to keep it close before finishing strong for the win.
If the Spurs want to get their third-straight win on Monday, they'll have to follow the same model.
Golden State will want to push the tempo, but the Spurs are comfortable with a higher pace of play. The Warriors play at the second-fastest pace in the league, but San Antonio is tenth. The Spurs have proven capable of matching fast teams, as their win against Houston showed.
The key for the Spurs will be to not get crushed at the three-point line and pound the painted area against a center-less Warriors defense.
While Golden State has killed teams from deep lately, they don't shoot the three-ball particularly well. They only rank 13th overall in three-point percentage. Streaky shooters like Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins can be limited with a determined perimeter presence.
The Spurs score 44.6% of their points in the painted area, ninth lowest in the league. San Antonio should make a concerted effort to pressure the interior and slow the game down with drawn out half-court sets that end in shots at the rim.
If they make enough of these opportunities while limiting the time Curry gets with the ball in his hands, the Spurs could hold serve on their home court.
Final Warriors-Spurs Prediction & Pick
While these two teams are fairly evenly matched, two injuries on the Spurs make me lean towards taking Golden State. LaMarcus Aldridge will miss this matchup, robbing the Spurs of an effective big man against a small Golden State lineup, and Lonnie Walker IV, an excellent perimeter defender, will not be active to help limit Curry and company. I think the Warriors hit enough threes to get the job done and beat the Spurs for the second time this season.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: GSW 121, SAS 116
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