The Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns will play the second game of their back-to-back set tonight in the desert. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Timberwolves-Suns prediction and pick.
The Timberwolves hold an overall record of 10-31, but they are 18-22-1 against the spread.
The Suns’ overall and against the spread records are identical at 26-13.
In last night's game, the Wolves shocked the Suns behind monster performances from Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns. The Suns look for revenge while the Wolves look to keep it running and earn the sweep.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Timberwolves-Suns odds.
NBA Odds: Timberwolves-Suns Odds
Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns -10.5 (-110)
Over 232.5 PTS (-110)
Under 232.5 PTS (-110)
Why The Timberwolves Could Cover The Spread
The Wolves' biggest advantage in their matchup tonight is their pace of play.
As we saw last night, when games turn into shootouts with little defense, Minnesota has a shot to hang around with Phoenix. They play at the fifth-highest pace in the NBA, while the Suns play at the fifth slowest.
In games where both teams score below 110 points, the Wolves are only 3-6. Minnesota can't afford a dragged-out, slowed-down game when their defense is outmatched here.
As more shots fly and transition opportunities pop up, the Wolves have a better chance to break a stingy Phoenix defense that has excelled in half-court sets.
Thanks to the emergence of Anthony Edwards, Minnesota is playing their best basketball of the season. They have covered in four of their last five games, and their one missed cover came thanks to a meltdown in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers.
Edwards is raising eyebrows as he makes a late run for Rookie of the Year. In his last five games, Edwards is averaging 30.6 points on 48% shooting from the field and 39% from deep.
The key for the Wolves tonight is to get the same offensive efficiency from their two best players. Minnesota is going to give up points, but if Towns can win his matchup against the Deandre Ayton and Edwards gives them a clean 22-25, the Wolves should hang around in this one.
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
Phoenix will be motivated to get revenge tonight for their meltdown in Game 1.
The Suns hold a statistical advantage in nearly every category against the Wolves. They hold the second-highest field goal percentage in the league and the sixth-highest three-point percentage. The Timberwolves are the bottom five in both those categories.
The biggest edge for Phoenix is on the defensive end.
While the Wolves allow the third-most points in the league, the Suns allow the fourth-least. The Suns have been particularly strong around the perimeter, holding opponents to just 34.6% from three.
Phoenix lost last night because of a combination of a meltdown along the three-point line and both of the Wolves' best players going off in the same game.
The Suns held an 11 point lead with 10 minutes to play in the fourth quarter. The Wolves went 5-5 from the three-point line, two of them coming from Towns drilling shots right in Ayton's grill.
The odds of a perfect storm coming together for the Wolves in back-to-back games is very low. The Suns should tighten up tonight and force Towns to grind out points from inside the arc.
The Suns led by double digits for about a quarter of the game. Usually, Devin Booker and company stamp out their opponents in this situation. Phoenix was 3-0 against the spread when faced with a double-digit spread until last night. Conversely, the Timberwolves were 0-4 against those double-digit spreads before their comeback win.
Phoenix will be ready to prove that last night was an outlier in their excellent 2020-21 campaign.
Final Timberwolves-Suns Prediction & Pick
Even before the fourth-quarter run, the Wolves showed fight all game last night. This Minnesota team has looked rejuvenated behind Edwards. While they might not pull off two straight upsets, 10.5 points is a pretty healthy spread for a team that has shown plenty of fight recently. The Wolves should at least make this a contest tonight and take the points.
FINAL PICK FOR WOLVES-SUNS: MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES +10.5
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