The Memphis Grizzlies travel to the Bay Area to take on the Golden State Warriors in the final play-in tournament game in the Western Conference. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Grizzlies-Warriors prediction and pick.
The Grizzlies closed the season with a record of 38-34 overall and 41-30-1 against the spread. Memphis is coming off a victory over the San Antonio Spurs to advance to the final play-in game.
The Warriors finished the regular season at 39-33 overall and 37-35 against the spread. The Dubs are coming off a thrilling game against the Los Angeles Lakers in which they came up just short.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Grizzlies-Warriors odds.
NBA Play-In Tournament Odds: Grizzlies-Warriors
Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 (-105)
Golden State Warriors -4.5 (-115)
Over 221.5 Points (-110)
Under 221.5 Points (-110)
Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
Memphis closed the regular season on a high note, winning five of its last six matchups. The one loss came to the Warriors in a game that was closer than the final score of 113-101 indicates.
The Grizzlies continue to play strong defense under Taylor Jenkins. They finished the season No. 7 in defensive efficiency and only gave up 120 points once in their last 12 games heading into Friday.
Memphis is solid defending inside the arc but just mediocre at best defending the 3-point line, which will be key against Stephen Curry. Dillon Brooks was physical with Curry last game before fouling out and will try to do it again.
On the offensive side, Memphis should milk its biggest advantage, and that's Jonas Valanciunas.
Valanciunas had a monster game against the Spurs, dropping 23 points and grabbing 23 boards. Last time the Grizz played the Warriors, the big man was the team's leading scorer with 29 points. Against a smaller Warriors backline, J.V. should feast once again.
Look for the Grizzlies to pound the ball inside for Valanciunas post-ups and Ja Morant penetrating drives. Memphis' best chance of pulling off the upset lies in a slow-paced, grind-it-out game with limited Curry theatrics.
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
After playing in one of the best games of the NBA season so far against the Lakers, the Warriors are forced to regroup and refocus against a new opponent.
Thankfully for Warriors fans, the Grizzlies have been a favorable matchup all year. Surprisingly, the Grizzlies are one of the two teams the Warriors have beat all year without Stephen Curry in the lineup.
Now, the Dubs have a healthy Curry, and more dangerously, a Curry looking for revenge. You can bet Steph is coming out shooting the ball, and he has been on fire for months now.
In Curry's last 20 games, he is averaging an insane 37.0 points on 48.5% shooting from the field and 44.5% from deep. Brooks is an excellent defender, but no one in the league is stopping Curry completely. The best bet is to hope he has an off night, and the odds of that are low in this one.
The Grizzlies allowed opponents to shoot 36.7% from deep this season, ranking 18th in the NBA. Golden State gets 38.5% of its points from beyond the arc, the fourth-highest percentage in the NBA. This is a very poor matchup for the Memphis defense.
The Warriors' defense will be locked in on stopping Valanciunas from hurting them too badly. While they don't have a big man who's a good matchup for the Grizzlies center, Golden State has played excellent interior defense all season.
The Warriors have held opponents to the third-lowest field goal percentage in the NBA, and despite often playing without a true center, are just outside the top 10 in terms of paint points allowed.
Draymond Green and Kevon Looney will be tasked with matching up against a much bigger opponent, but as the Warriors showed against the Lakers, they are very effective at sending double-teams.
Expect the Warriors to tweak their game plan a little from their last matchup with Memphis and ensure Valanciunas doesn't run all over them in the lane.
Final Grizzlies-Warriors Prediction & Pick
I'm riding with the Warriors due to several factors. For one, Memphis has been atrocious against the spread recently. The Grizzlies have just two covers in their last eight games. They are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games. This Chase Center crowd will be loud and active, and that's all Steph Curry needs. I just can't see an MVP candidate getting knocked out before the postseason starts, and a Golden State loss would be a nightmare for the league and pretty much everyone but Grizzlies and Jazz fans. I'll lay the points in a do-or-die game and put my faith in Steph to pull this one out.
FINAL GRIZZLIES-WARRIORS PREDICTION/PICK: GSW 114, MEM 105 (GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS -4)