The Memphis Grizzlies will host the San Antonio Spurs in the first of two Western Conference play-in games on Wednesday night. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Spurs-Grizzlies prediction and pick.
This do-or-die play-in game features two clubs that have been on complete opposite trajectories of late. San Antonio couldn't be struggling more as it has lost eight of its last 10 games coming in. Memphis is scorching hot with wins in six of its last eight games to date.
The Grizzlies won the head-to-head series 2-1 after dropping the first game of the season to the Spurs. The average total of the three games played between these clubs was 242 points. Memphis won the last two games by a combined 48 points and will look to ride the momentum into this life-or-death affair.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Spurs-Grizzlies odds.
NBA Odds: Spurs-Grizzlies Odds
San Antonio Spurs +4 (-108)
Memphis Grizzlies -4 (-112)
Over 222.5 Points (-110)
Under 222.5 Points (-110)
Why The Spurs Could Cover The Spread
The San Antonio Spurs will have to figure it out on the fly as their season did not end the way they'd hoped. The Spurs lost their final four games and 10 of their last 12 to end the regular season. To their credit, San Antonio knew that they'd be the 10th seed a few games back and capitalized on the opportunity to get healthy for the play-in.
The Spurs lack the talent to compete with the Memphis Grizzlies on a regular basis. They are much older and play at a much slower pace. This could be a recipe for disaster against a young club like the Grizzlies, but the Spurs do have one factor working in their favor. They certainly have the edge in playoff experience, which we learned yesterday is vital in this tournament.
With guys like DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, and Patty Mills, the Spurs have the necessary experience to advance. In comparison, Memphis is one of the youngest teams in the league in terms of minutes played by first and second-year guys. San Antonio thrived on the road this season, going 23-12-1 ATS when playing away from home.
Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
The Memphis Grizzlies couldn't have finished the season in a more ideal way. They are red-hot coming into the play-in tournament with wins in five of their last six games. Memphis was also able to get its guys healthy as Jaren Jackson Jr. was eased back into the rotation throughout the month of May and should have the necessary chemistry on the court to thrive in this game.
The Grizzlies have a unique ability to get to the paint and wreak havoc for opposing frontcourts. Memphis leads the league in paint scoring at 55.8 points per game. This attack is led by Ja Morant, who uses his speed and quickness to drive to the hole and create higher-percentage looks. With a guy like Jonas Valanciunas hanging out on the block, it'll be hard for San Antonio to provide quick help defense.
Memphis found a way to score in bunches against the Spurs in these teams' previous two matchups. The Grizzlies averaged 131 points per game over the past two games and shot a whopping 56% from the field in both. The Grizzlies won the rebounding battle both times as well, which may be the ultimate difference-maker in this play-in game.
Final Spurs-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick
This game will almost certainly feature some wild inconsistencies and erratic play from some energetic youngsters early on. As they get their footing, it'll be up to the vets to carry the load. Although the edge may actually belong to the Spurs early on, it is the Grizzlies that will prevail. With the Spurs' inability to make the three-ball on a consistent basis, Memphis has a clear edge in that department. With the disparity in offensive output and the trajectory of these two teams lately, Memphis will cover this spread on their home court.
FINAL PICK: Memphis Grizzlies -4 (-112)
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