The stage is set for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first-round series between the no. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks and the no. 1 seed Miami Heat. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our NBA odds series, which includes our Hawks-Heat Game 1 prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.
The Hawks (43-39) entered the play-in tournament as the 9th seed, which meant they needed to win two games to advance to the playoffs. Atlanta routed the Charlotte Hornets this past Wednesday, then came from behind to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday to book the 8th and final spot in the East.
Meanwhile, the Heat earned the top seed in the conference by finishing with a 53-29 record. Miami enters the postseason with a little bit of momentum. Since a turbulent week in late March, the Heat went on to win six straight games before dropping their final game of the regular season.
Miami took the season series against Atlanta this season, 3-1. All games were decided by six points or less, save for the first encounter where the Heat beat the Hawks 115-91 in a game where Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo did not play.
Here is how Fanduel has set the Hawks-Heat NBA playoffs odds for Game 1 this Sunday.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Hawks–Heat Odds
Atlanta Hawks: +6.5 (-114)
Miami Heat: -6.5 (-106)
Over: 216.5 (-110)
Under: 216.5 (-110)
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Why The Hawks Could Cover The Spread
The Hawks should enter Game 1 with a ton of confidence, especially considering what they did on Friday night to earn the no. 8 seed in the East. Trailing by 10 at the half, Atlanta staged a massive comeback led by Trae Young, who scored 32 of his 38 points in the second half.
In four regular-season games versus the Heat, Ice Trae averaged 25.5 points and 7.3 assists while shooting 43.9 percent from the field and 31.4 percent from three. Those numbers are below Young's regular-season numbers, though he did have a 35-point, eight-assist outing in one of their encounters this season.
The Hawks have somewhat established themselves as home intruders for Game 1. As the no. 5 seed in last year's playoffs, they were on the road for all their series openers and won all three games, including against the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals.
While that was the case last year, they, unfortunately, could begin the 2022 playoffs without their two big men in John Collins and Clint Capela. Collins has been out since March 13 due to a plantar fascia in his foot. The forward has been sidelined indefinitely and there is no update on when he'll be able to return. Meanwhile, Capela suffered a hyperextended knee in Friday's play-in game versus the Cavaliers. There is still no word on the severity of his injury. But all things considered, he'll likely be unable to go for Game 1.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
As the top seed, the Heat are the obvious favorites to win. FTX Arena should be loud and packed as Miami hosts its first Game 1 since 2016.
The fact that John Collins and Clint Capela are likely out for the Hawks is a huge advantage for the Heat. With the two bigs out, Atlanta will need to rely on 2nd-year big man Onyeka Okongwu to hold down the interior. Look for this veteran Heat team to exploit that matchup against an inexperienced center.
Miami finished with the 4th best defensive rating in the NBA, which suggests they have what it takes to contain Atlanta's top-two offense. They held the Hawks to an average of 107.0 points in four games, which is nearly seven points below Atlanta's average for the season. Furthermore, they were able to hold Trae Young to below-par shooting numbers in the four games they saw him this season.
Victor Oladipo could be the X-factor for Miami in these playoffs. He played just eight games in the regular season after returning from a lengthy absence but looked like his old self in his last two games before the end of the year. Oladipo scored 21 points in a game versus Toronto, then dropped 40 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists in the Heat's season finale versus the Magic.
Final Hawks–Heat Prediction & Pick
Last year suggests Atlanta could come out and open the playoffs with a shocker, so I'm going with that trend for this one. Trae Young loves being the heel and thrives off the energy from the boos, just as he did on Friday against Cleveland. I am unsure which team opens the series with a victory. The Hawks could be home spoilers once again. Nonetheless, I think Atlanta keeps this game close at the very least.
Final Hawks–Heat Prediction & Pick: Hawks: +6.5 (-114)
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