The Atlanta Hawks travel to Wisconsin Wednesday for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Milwaukee Bucks. It’s time to continue our NBA Playoffs odds series and make a Hawks-Bucks prediction and pick for Game 1.
The Bucks hold an overall record of 8-3 in the postseason but are only 6-5 against the spread. Milwaukee is undefeated on its home floor in the playoffs through the first two rounds.
The Hawks stand at 8-4 both overall and against the spread in the postseason. Atlanta is an impressive 5-2 on the road so far in the playoffs.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Hawks-Bucks odds for Game 1.
NBA Odds: Hawks-Bucks Game 1 Odds
Atlanta Hawks +8 (-108)
Milwaukee Bucks -8 (-112)
Over 225 Points (-107)
Under 225 Points (-113)
Why The Hawks Could Cover The Spread
Atlanta comes into Game 1 riding the momentum of shocking the Philadelphia 76ers on their home floor.
The Hawks were underdogs in every single game of the series and still managed to win four. Trae Young and company are no stranger to covering on the road and have covered spreads as large as seven points in front of hostile crowds this postseason.
Interestingly enough, Atlanta seems to play better away from home. Young, specifically, seems to have especially embraced the villain role this postseason.
On the road, Young's scoring numbers have seen a bump even after a rough Game 7 performance. Trae is averaging 30.6 points on 41.0% shooting away from Atlanta as opposed to 27.0 points on 41.6% shooting in front of his home fans.
Perhaps most importantly, the Hawks showed they could win without a vintage Young performance in their Game 7 upset of the Sixers.
Young was atrocious for the first 44 minutes of the game, but the Hawks still managed to grab the victory thanks to their supporting cast. Kevin Huerter and Danilo Gallinari combined for 44 points, and Clint Capela did enough to keep Joel Embiid from taking over the game.
Atlanta needs a similar performance in Milwaukee to win a third straight Game 1. The Bucks have more capable scorers than the Sixers, and the Hawks need all hands on deck to keep up.
Some good news for the Hawks is that Cam Reddish is questionable to play Game 1 after being out of action since February. Reddish might not be a game-changer, but the Hawks could use all the help they can get. Having a 3-and-D wing who can knock down open shots could give them a slight boost.
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
This Bucks team is a nightmare matchup for any defense when they're clicking. The Hawks match up poorly with this Bucks starting five. It doesn't help that Bogdan Bogdanovic is listed as questionable and is hobbled with a knee injury.
Brook Lopez is even more willing to shoot the 3-pointer than Joel Embiid, and he should draw Clint Capela out of the painted area, neutralizing the best Hawks interior defender.
Giannis Antetokounmpo will likely draw John Collins, a matchup the Bucks should look to exploit nearly every time down the floor.
P.J. Tucker, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday are all capable shooters who will alternate time slowing Trae Young and draining jumpers on the other end.
In the end, Trae Young is unlikely to have the impact he had in the Sixers series, especially in Game 1. Young can adapt to what the Bucks throw at him, but it will probably take a few repetitions to truly be ready. The odds Trae drops a 30 piece in Game 1 are far lower than Game 2.
On the other hand, Bucks shooters should come out hot. Milwaukee has been shaky from the 3-point line in the playoffs, shooting only 31.2% from deep. There are two factors that lead me to believe this won't last long.
For one, the Bucks shot 38.9% from beyond the arc in the regular season. Milwaukee is beyond due for some positive regression, and their shooters are too good to be this cold over a prolonged stretch.
Secondly, Milwaukee showed signs of breaking out toward the end of the Brooklyn series. In their last three games, the Bucks combined to shoot 34.6% from 3. This percentage still isn't great, but it was the best three-game stretch they've had shooting the ball since Games 2-4 against Miami.
Bucks snipers should get plenty of good looks in Game 1, and more should fall than what we've seen this postseason.
Final Hawks-Bucks Game 1 Prediction & Pick
The Hawks are on a fairytale run, but the Bucks are set to stop it. Milwaukee just toppled a much better opponent and didn't even play its best basketball while accomplishing the feat. I can't see the Hawks stealing this game barring the combination of a Trae Young masterclass and an ice-cold shooting night for the home team, and neither are likely to happen. The Bucks should open the series with a big victory.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: MIL 119 ATL 107 (MILWAUKEE BUCKS -8.5)
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