The Dallas Mavericks take on the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 5 of a series deadlocked at two games apiece. It’s time to continue our NBA Playoffs odds series and make a Mavericks-Clippers prediction and pick.
The Mavericks return to Staples Center looking to bounce back after losing home-court advantage with two straight losses.
The Clippers will attempt to continue their dominant run after back-to-back wins by double digits in Dallas.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Mavericks-Clippers odds for Game 5.
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Clippers Odds
Dallas Mavericks +7 (-105)
Los Angeles Clippers -7 (-115)
Over 217 Points (-110)
Under 217 Points (-110)
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
The Mavericks have dominated the series in Staples Center, and perhaps a return to Los Angeles is exactly what motivates Dallas to return to its winning ways.
One thing we know for sure is that Mavericks star Luka Doncic loves to play the villain in front of a hostile crowd, and he has torched the Clippers on their home court.
Doncic (who is currently listed as probable to play with a neck injury) has posted better numbers in Los Angeles. He's averaging 35.0 points on 51% shooting in LA vs. 31.5 points on 46% shooting in Dallas in the series.
Luka is the engine of this Mavs offense, and they badly need him to have a big game to keep them in this. In the regular season, the Mavericks were only 5-9 when Luka shot 40% or below from the field. Game 4 was the only game of the series where Luka had a poor shooting night, and Dallas was blown out.
The Mavs will also need to make sure the Clippers don't go bonkers from 3-point range. In Dallas' two wins, they held the Clippers to 31.1% from 3. In their two losses, LA shot 40.1% from deep.
Dallas needs to limit the Clippers' plethora of shooters and continue to force them to shoot contested jumpers. If the Mavs can do that and get some Luka magic, they could return to Dallas needing just one more win to advance.
Why The Clippers Could Cover The Spread
The Clippers have finally found their groove after being left for dead just two games into the series.
Ty Lue's group looked completely out of sorts in Games 1 and 2, but much more like themselves after traveling to Dallas and then falling behind early in Game 3.
The biggest changes that have helped LA regain control of the series have been the Clippers' role players finally stepping up and the defense bringing Dallas back down to earth.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have consistently been very good this series. PG is shooting 50.0% and averaging 25.0 points a game. Leonard has been unstoppable, averaging 35.3 points and shooting 62.7%.
The role players are making a key difference. In Games 1 and 2, the Clippers had a total of one starter not named Leonard or George reach double-digit scoring once (Patrick Beverley in Game 1).
In Games 3 and 4, they had two other starters besides their stars hit double digits in each game. If the Clippers get serious contributions from guys like Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, and Nic Batum, this team is very, very hard to beat. Rajon Rondo has also been a spark plug off the bench.
On defense, the Clips have done a much better job on Mavericks not named Luka Doncic. After scoring 49 points in the first two games of the series, LA held Tim Hardaway Jr. to 16 points total in the two games in Dallas.
THJ had the most dramatic regression, but players like Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, and Jalen Brunson were all for the most part held in check on their home floor.
It's tempting to focus on the stars in the series, but the wins have gone to whoever's supporting cast plays the best. Right now, the Clippers' lesser players have the upper hand.
Final Mavericks-Clippers Prediction & Pick
We should see a slow-paced, grind-it-out style of game as both teams are desperate for that key Game 5 victory. While the Clippers have the upper hand here, seven points is too many points to lay on a team that has been unconvincing on their home floor. The Clips are very likely to take the win, but I doubt the Mavericks go down without a fight. I'll ride with Luka and the Mavs to make this a nail-biter, but ultimately fall in Staples Center.
FINAL MAVERICKS-CLIPPERS PREDICTION & PICK: LAC 110, DAL 106 (DALLAS MAVERICKS +7)
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