The Phoenix Suns are set to take on the Dallas Mavericks for Game 4 of their Western Conference semi-finals series. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our NBA odds series, which includes our Suns-Mavericks prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.
The Mavericks finally got their foot in the series after putting up a dominant performance in Game 4. Dallas finally got a good game from Jalen Brunson, who poured in 28 points after struggling mightily through the first two games of the series. Luka Doncic had a typical day in the office with a near triple-double of 26 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists.
Though the Mavs' stars played well offensively, it was their defense that mainly came through for them. Dallas held Phoenix to a postseason-low 94 points and forced the Suns to commit 17 turnovers. Chris Paul was held to just 12 points and uncharacteristically committed seven turnovers, five of which came in the first half. Devin Booker also had a quiet evening with just 18 points on 13 shots and had five turnovers himself.
Here are the Suns-Mavericks Game 4 NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Suns-Mavericks Odds
Phoenix Suns: -2 (-112)
Dallas Mavericks: +2 (-108)
Over: 215 (-110)
Under: 215 (-110)
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Why the Suns could cover the spread
Despite taking a nine-point loss, the Suns still enter Sunday as the favorites for Game 4. Talent-wise, Phoenix does have the edge over Dallas. However, the Mavs took it to them defensively, holding the Suns to just 94 points.
The Suns also uncharacteristically had 17 turnovers in Game 3. They averaged 12.9 per game throughout the regular season. In particular, Chris Paul committed seven turnovers, which all came in the first half. Look for them to clean up on that department on Sunday.
Devin Booker and Chris Paul were also both bottled up in Game 3. Booker had 18 points on just 13 shot attempts, while Paul tallied 12 points on just nine field-goal attempts. We've seen Paul and Booker take over games time and time again, especially in the playoffs. Look for the two-star guards to be more aggressive with their shots in Game 4.
Phoenix may still be up 2-1, but they would ideally want to enter Game 5 with a commanding 3-1 series lead with a chance to close the Mavericks at home. It also doesn't seem to matter for the Suns whether they are playing at home or on the road. They finished the regular season with identical 32-9 home and away records. And in each of the Western Conference series they've played since last year, they've taken at least one game on the road.
Why the Mavericks could cover the spread
The Mavericks have every reason to keep playing with the same kind of urgency they had in Game 3 as they do not want to head into the Phoenix facing elimination. Dallas does have the homecourt edge for Game 4. They finished the regular season with a 29-12 home record and they've gone 2-0 so far at American Airlines Center with Doncic in the lineup.
Speaking of Doncic, he's been absolutely special in this series, despite getting hunted on the defensive end in Game 2. The good news is the Mavs finally got someone other than Doncic to help carry the offensive load. The Jalen Brunson that the Utah Jazz had to deal with in round one finally showed up in the conference semi-finals. The Mavericks point guard scored just 22 points combined on 32.1 percent shooting in Games 1 and 2 after averaging 27.8 points in the first round versus the Jazz. In Game 3, Brunson poured in a game-high 28 points. Now that the lefty has found his rhythm, this gives the Mavs a major offensive boost.
Nonetheless, Dallas' offense has been quite steady throughout this series. In fact, Game 3 might have been their worst offensive game so far. Where the Mavs really won the game is on the defensive end. They held the Suns to just 94 points, their lowest scoring output, not just in the playoffs, but the entire season. They also forced Phoenix to commit 17 turnovers, 12 of which came from the backcourt of Paul and Booker. The Mavericks also seemed intent on letting the “others” beat them. They made it a point to get the ball out of their hands and this forced other guys to make plays.
Final Suns-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
I'm taking the Mavericks in this one. While taking the 3-1 series lead is in the Suns' best interests, the Mavericks have more to play for since they do not want to head back to Phoenix facing elimination. Jalen Brunson finally regained the form he had in round one, giving Luka Doncic that other offensive option they need to contend with Phoenix's no. 5 rated offense. The defense also came through for Dallas and if they keep the intensity up on that end of the floor, this series should go back to Phoenix tied at 2-2.
Final Suns-Mavericks Prediction & Pick: Mavericks: +2 (-108)
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