The Tennessee Volunteers (18-8) get a tough draw as they'll go up against the Oregon State Beavers (17-12) in the round of 64 on Friday. Let’s continue our NCAA Odds series and make a Oregon State-Tennessee prediction and pick.
Twelve seeds are always interesting because they're typically more talented than their seeding depicts. This is why you always see multiple eleven and twelve seeds pull off upsets in the first round. I'm putting this matchup on serious upset alert.
Here is how the sportsbooks have set the odds:
NCAA Odds: Oregon State-Tennessee Odds
Oregon State Beavers +7.5 (-105)
Tennessee Volunteers -7.5 (-115)
Over 131 Points (-105)
Under 131 Points (-115)
Why Oregon State Could Cover The Spread
Oregon State is coming off of an impressive Pac 12 championship and will be riding a ton of momentum coming in. They enter the big dance with a record of 18-9-1 ATS and have been very hot of late. Over their past eleven games, the Beavers are 10-1 ATS. They are also 6-1 SU in their last seven. This Beaver squad has all of the makings of a cinderella team with Sweet Sixteen potential. I love twelve seeds because as mentioned in the intro, their seeding doesn't come close to explaining the basketball they are capable of playing.
Led by three seniors in their starting lineup, Oregon State has the necessary experience and pedigree to cover a touchdown spread. I understand that the talent advantage is in favor of Tennessee, but experience has to play a factor in bettor's eyes, too. The Beavers shot the lights out of the gym in the Pac 12 tournament, hitting their three's at a 44% clip. They finished the year ranked 38th in the country in free throw percentage as well, shooting 75% from the charity stripe. They will look to capitalize on the possible absence of Volunteers starting forward John Fulkerson.
Why Tennessee Could Cover The Spread
The Tennessee Volunteers will look to bounce back in the tournament following their second round loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC tournament. This Volunteers team is loaded with talent this season. The Volunteers shoot the lights out of the gym and possess a two headed monster in the backcourt. They are especially efficient on the defensive end of the floor. The Volunteers finished within the top-25 in total score and field goal percentage against in the nation. Tennessee's balanced attack makes them a club capable of routing the field and reaching the Final Four.
The Vols are led by guards Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson. Both are clear one and done's that will likely be lottery picks in the 2021 NBA draft. They have been Tennessee's leading scorers all season. Jaden Springer hit his three's at a 44% clip in 2021 and will have the green light all game. He's the type of shooter that's capable of catapulting his team to a 12-0 run in the span of a minute. Don't blink. Tennessee has covered in three of their last five games and will certainly be the aggressor out of the gate on Friday.
Final Oregon State-Tennessee Prediction & Pick
Will Tennessee be the more talented team on the floor? Yes. Will they be the more experienced and hungry team? No. Oregon State will come out hot and have the more consistent formula for success on this stage. Tennessee will look to bury the Beavers with high volume shooting, which will leave them vulnerable to a cold streak. The Beavers will capitalize with high percentage shooting and grit behind their three seniors. I've picked the Beavers to advance in my bracket and feel confident in their ability to cover this spread.
FINAL PICK: Oregon State +7.5 (-105)
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